TLDR
- Rigetti Computing reports Q3 2025 earnings on November 10, with Wall Street expecting a loss of $0.05 per share and revenue of $2.17 million
- The stock has surged 144% year-to-date and 3,007% over the past 12 months despite missing earnings estimates in six of the last nine quarters
- Rigetti secured a $5.8 million three-year contract with the Air Force Research Laboratory in September and received $5.7 million in purchase orders for two 9-qubit Novera quantum systems
- B. Riley downgraded the stock to Neutral citing concerns about U.S. government funding delays, while Needham maintained a Buy rating with a $51 price target
- Options traders expect an 18.40% move in either direction following the earnings announcement
Rigetti Computing will report third-quarter 2025 results after market close on November 10. The timing comes as the quantum computing company rides a massive stock rally fueled by recent contract wins and progress in its core technology.
Wall Street analysts expect Rigetti to post a loss of $0.05 per share for the quarter. That would represent an improvement from the $0.08 loss reported in the same period last year.
Revenue tells a different story. Analysts forecast sales of $2.17 million, down about 7.3% from the prior year quarter.
The stock has climbed 144% so far this year. Over the past 12 months, shares have exploded 3,007% higher.
That rally hasn’t been driven by traditional financial metrics. Rigetti has missed earnings estimates in six of the past nine quarters.
Instead, investors are betting on the company’s quantum computing technology and its path to commercial viability. The recent contract announcements have added fuel to that optimism.
Recent Contract Wins
On September 18, Rigetti announced a three-year contract worth $5.8 million with the Air Force Research Laboratory. The deal involves developing improved superconducting quantum networks in partnership with Dutch company QphoX.
Less than two weeks later, the company revealed $5.7 million in purchase orders for two 9-qubit Novera quantum systems. Those systems are scheduled for delivery in the first half of 2026.
The Novera system features a modular design. Customers can add more qubits as the technology advances and their needs grow.
During the second-quarter earnings call in August, management highlighted performance improvements with its Cepheus-1-36Q multi-chip quantum computer. The system cut error rates in half compared to the previous Ankaa-3 system.
Reducing computational errors remains one of the biggest challenges in quantum computing. The qubits that power these machines are extremely sensitive to environmental factors like temperature changes and vibrations.
Analyst Views Split
B. Riley analyst Craig Ellis downgraded Rigetti to Neutral from Buy ahead of the Q3 report. He raised his price target to $42 from $35 but expressed concern about potential delays in U.S. government funding.
Ellis noted the stock has already priced in much of its long-term potential after this year’s strong rally.
Needham analyst N. Quinn Bolton takes a more optimistic view. He maintained a Buy rating and lifted his price target to $51 from $18, the highest on Wall Street.
Bolton pointed to faster real-world adoption and improving scalability in quantum computing. He highlighted Rigetti’s work with QphoX, which combines superconducting qubits with optical technology to maintain quantum data stability during conversion.
The consensus rating from five analysts stands at Strong Buy, based on five Buy ratings and two Hold ratings. The average price target sits at $32.00, which represents downside of 14.19% from current levels.
Options traders are positioning for volatility around the earnings announcement. Using at-the-money straddle calculations, the options market implies an 18.40% move in either direction following the report.
Investors will likely focus on several key areas during the earnings call. Cash burn remains a critical metric given the company’s ongoing losses.
Updates on quantum computing technology progress will matter more than the revenue number. Any announcements about new customer wins or commercial adoption timelines could drive the stock.
The company received $5.7 million in purchase orders for its Novera systems with delivery scheduled for the first half of 2026.
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