TLDR
- Fourth quarter 2025 revenue dropped 17.6% annually to $1.87 million, falling short of the $2.33 million analyst consensus
- Mizuho’s Vijay Rakesh lowered his price target to $43 from $50 while keeping a Buy rating, pointing to 142% potential upside
- The company demonstrated 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity at 28 nanoseconds, possibly 3–5x quicker than rival technologies
- Cash reserves stand at approximately $590 million, with an $8.4 million contract secured from India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing
- The company plans to deliver 150+ physical qubits by December 2026 and exceed 1,000 qubits by late 2027
Rigetti Computing experienced a challenging fourth quarter in terms of revenue performance, though the company’s technological achievements paint a more optimistic picture. Here’s what investors need to know.
Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 totaled $1.87 million, representing a 17.6% decline from the prior-year period and missing analyst projections of $2.33 million. The previous quarter delivered $2.3 million, making the sequential decline noteworthy.
Gross profit margins contracted to 35% from 44% in the year-ago quarter. Management explained this compression as primarily driven by contract composition rather than fundamental business challenges.
Operating losses expanded to $22.6 million during the quarter, compared to $18.5 million in Q4 2024. Total operating expenses climbed to $23.2 million from $19.5 million, primarily due to increased research and development investments.
The company reported an earnings loss of $0.03 per share, matching Wall Street consensus expectations.
Mizuho’s Vijay Rakesh adjusted his price target downward from $50 to $43 — representing a 14% reduction. Despite this adjustment, he maintained his Buy recommendation.
At the $43 level, Rakesh’s target suggests approximately 142% upside potential from current trading prices. His valuation methodology applies roughly 9x to projected revenues 30 months forward, assuming Rigetti secures 10% market share in quantum computing.
Q1 Guidance and Upcoming Revenue Drivers
Rakesh projects first quarter 2026 revenue of $3 million — representing a 62% sequential increase and 106% growth year-over-year. This anticipated expansion is largely attributed to Rigetti’s $5.7 million Novera quantum processor agreement.
Additionally, the company expects to ship its inaugural Cepheus-1 108-qubit system to India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing during the second half of 2026, valued at $8.4 million.
Rigetti’s balance sheet shows approximately $590 million in cash, providing sufficient capital to advance its technology roadmap without near-term financing concerns.
Technology Milestones
On the technical front, Rigetti demonstrated 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity utilizing a novel adiabatic CZ methodology at 28 nanoseconds. Management claims this performance is potentially 3 to 5 times faster than alternative approaches currently available.
The company has already released an 84-qubit monolithic chip system and a 36-qubit chiplet-based architecture to cloud platforms.
Rigetti operates Fab One, characterized as the quantum computing industry’s first purpose-built and vertically integrated quantum device production facility.
Strategic collaborations include Riverlane for quantum error correction capabilities and Nvidia for connecting quantum processors with traditional GPUs and CPUs through NVLink technology, leveraging CUDA-Q software for hybrid computing environments.
The company’s development timeline targets more than 150 physical qubits by December 2026 and surpassing 1,000 qubits by year-end 2027. According to management estimates, practical quantum advantage remains approximately three years out.
According to TipRanks, RGTI holds a Moderate Buy consensus rating derived from five Buy recommendations and two Hold ratings. The analyst average price target stands at $37.60, suggesting approximately 111.7% upside potential from current price levels.
Over the trailing twelve months, RGTI stock has appreciated more than 117%.
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