TLDR
- Rigetti Computing stock surged 16.4% Thursday morning on government equity stake reports before retreating to 6.5% gains
- Commerce Department official denied negotiations, contradicting The Wall Street Journal’s report
- RGTI has rallied approximately 5,000% in 2025, climbing from under $1 to around $40
- Companies were reportedly discussing minimum $10 million funding awards from the Chips Research and Development Office
- Stock closed at $39.60 on October 23 and traded near $40.98 in pre-market Thursday
Rigetti Computing experienced wild price swings Thursday as conflicting reports about federal funding left investors guessing. The quantum computing company’s shares jumped 16.4% before cooling to a 6.5% gain by early afternoon.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration was discussing equity stakes in multiple quantum computing companies. Rigetti was named alongside IonQ, D-Wave Quantum, Quantum Computing, and Atom Computing in these talks.
The proposed deals would exchange federal funding for government ownership stakes. Companies were reportedly discussing minimum funding awards of $10 million each from the Chips Research and Development Office.
Deputy Commerce Secretary Paul Dabbar was leading the discussions. Dabbar previously worked as a quantum computing executive before his government role.
The arrangement would follow a pattern set with Intel. In August, the government converted nearly $9 billion in grants to take a roughly 10% stake in the chipmaker.
Reports Fall Apart
Reuters and Yahoo Finance attempted to verify the Journal’s story but came up empty. A Commerce Department official told Reuters the department is “not currently negotiating with any of the companies.”
That denial sent the stock tumbling from its morning peak. The contradiction turned potential good news into uncertainty.
A Rigetti spokeswoman said the company continuously engages with the government on funding opportunities. The statement neither confirmed nor denied the specific talks mentioned in the Journal article.
The funding would come through the Chips Research and Development Office. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick recently reorganized this office and clawed back several billion dollars from previous tech initiatives.
Year of Extreme Gains
Thursday’s volatility continues Rigetti’s dramatic 2025. The stock has climbed roughly 5,000% this year from under $1 to current levels around $40.
The company peaked at about $56 on October 15. It has since pulled back approximately 25% to the high-$30s range.
Real business wins have supported part of the rally. Rigetti secured a $5.8 million Air Force contract for quantum networking in late September with partner QphoX.
The company also landed about $5.7 million in orders for two Novera quantum computers. These systems will ship in 2026.
Rigetti launched a new 36-qubit, multi-chip processor on its cloud platform. These developments provided tangible progress behind the stock surge.
But fundamentals remain thin. Q2 2025 revenue came in at just $1.8 million, down 42% year-over-year. The company posted a $39.7 million net loss while operating expenses hit $20.4 million.
Rigetti finished Q2 with approximately $571.6 million in cash after a $350 million equity raise. Analysts expect Q3 revenue around $2 million with continued losses.
At current prices, the valuation sits around 1,500 times trailing sales. Market cap ranges from $13 billion to $18 billion despite single-digit millions in revenue.
Wall Street shows unanimous Strong Buy ratings on TipRanks. However, most price targets sit in the mid-$20s, roughly 40% to 50% below recent trading levels. Benchmark’s top target of $50 represents just 8% upside.
The quantum sector has seen similar rallies. IonQ is up about 700% year-to-date while D-Wave has climbed 3,000% to 4,000%. Google announced Wednesday its Willow quantum chip ran algorithms 13,000 times faster than classical supercomputers.
Quantum Computing CEO Yuping Huang called potential government equity stakes exciting. D-Wave’s head of government relations Allison Schwartz said the company wants to solve hard government problems and deliver returns.
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