TLDR
- Rivian expects to deliver no more than 43,500 vehicles in 2025, a 16% drop from 2024’s 51,579 deliveries
- The company delivered 13,201 vehicles in Q3 2025, beating analyst estimates of 12,690 vehicles
- Rivian narrowed its annual forecast from 40,000-46,000 vehicles to 41,500-43,500 vehicles on Thursday
- The $7,500 federal EV tax credit expired on Tuesday, creating uncertainty for electric vehicle sales
- Rivian’s vehicles were only eligible for the tax credit through leasing, limiting its benefit from the pre-expiration rush
Rivian Automotive lowered its delivery expectations for 2025 on Thursday. The electric vehicle maker now expects to deliver between 41,500 and 43,500 vehicles by year end.
This represents a nearly 16% decline from 2024’s total of 51,579 vehicles. The revised forecast marks the company’s third reduction this year.
The announcement came alongside third-quarter delivery figures. Rivian delivered 13,201 vehicles during the period, beating analyst estimates of 12,690 vehicles.
The third quarter showed improvement from earlier in the year. Second quarter deliveries reached 10,661 vehicles, while first quarter deliveries totaled 8,640 vehicles.
Production during Q3 stood at 10,720 electric vehicles. The company recovered from a slow start to 2025.
Rivian began the year with optimistic projections. The company initially told investors it expected to deliver between 46,000 and 51,000 vehicles.
By May, the forecast dropped to 40,000-46,000 vehicles. The company cited “evolving trade regulation, policies, tariffs and the overall impact these items may have on consumer sentiment and demand.”
Thursday’s announcement narrowed that range further. The midpoint of the new forecast sits 500 vehicles lower than the previous estimate.
Tax Credit Expiration Creates Headwinds
The $7,500 federal EV tax credit expired on Tuesday. Congress abolished the credit through sweeping legislation earlier this year.
The credit’s removal creates uncertainty for the electric vehicle industry. Analysts predicted a sales drop would follow the expiration.
Many automakers saw a rush of buyers before the deadline. Tesla delivered a record number of vehicles during Q3 as customers rushed to claim the credit.
Rivian faced a different situation. The company’s vehicles only qualified for the tax credit when leased, not purchased outright.
This limited Rivian’s ability to benefit from the pre-expiration shopping rush. Other automakers saw stronger third-quarter sales from credit-motivated buyers.
Manufacturing Challenges Continue
Tariffs on imported auto parts have pushed up manufacturing costs. The duties forced carmakers to reorganize supply chains.
Companies are working to reduce foreign dependency. The Trump administration emphasized increased U.S. investment.
Rising vehicle costs threaten Rivian’s profit margins. The company has focused on improving profitability.
Rivian is preparing its Normal, Illinois factory for expanded production. The facility will build the R2 SUV starting next year.
The R2 is designed to be Rivian’s most affordable vehicle. The company expects to build and sell hundreds of thousands of units.
Construction has begun on a new Georgia factory. The facility will produce the R2 and R3 hatchback.
CEO RJ Scaringe spoke about the competitive landscape in August. He suggested that the end of federal subsidies could benefit pure-play EV companies.
Scaringe believes some automakers sold money-losing EVs to gain regulatory credits. Without federal support, that strategy becomes unsustainable.
He told InsideEVs that Rivian and Tesla might face thinner competition through 2029-2030. The companies maintain complete focus on electrification.
Rivian’s stock fell more than 5% in early trading following the announcement. Shares dropped 7.97% to $13.44 by mid-morning Thursday.
