TLDR
- Rivian stock skyrocketed 27% Friday following fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and detailed guidance for the mass-market R2 SUV
- The electric vehicle maker expects to deliver 62,000-67,000 vehicles in 2026, representing 53% growth driven by R2 sales starting Q2
- UBS raised its rating from Sell to Neutral with a $16 price target, though shares already trade above that level after the rally
- The Volkswagen partnership contributed $576 million in software revenue, helping reduce automotive segment losses to $432 million in 2025
- Analysts caution that delivery targets assume flawless R2 production execution and flat R1 demand despite potential headwinds
Rivian delivered a blowout Friday trading session with shares climbing roughly 27% after releasing fourth-quarter earnings. The surge came as investors embraced the company’s roadmap for its affordable R2 SUV.
The electric vehicle manufacturer confirmed the R2 will reach customers in the second quarter of 2026. At just under $45,000, the vehicle positions Rivian to compete in the mass market for the first time.
That’s a dramatic shift from the R1 lineup, which carries price tags starting above $75,000. The new model targets budget-conscious buyers who want EV technology without premium pricing.
Rivian forecasts total 2026 deliveries will land between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles. Compared to 2025’s 42,247 deliveries, that represents 53% growth. The projection exceeded Wall Street’s consensus estimate of 64,130 units.
CEO RJ Scaringe highlighted strong early interest in the R2. More than 68,000 reservations poured in during the first 24 hours after the vehicle’s 2024 announcement. Customer appetite appears solid based on pre-orders.
Wall Street Upgrades But Stays Cautious
UBS analyst Joseph Spak responded to the earnings report by upgrading Rivian from Sell to Neutral. His price target moved from $15 to $16.
The upgrade wasn’t exactly bullish. Spak emphasized that valuation concerns had eased after the stock’s prior decline. He didn’t signal major upside from current levels.
Several red flags remain in Spak’s analysis. He expects R1 sales could decline as EV tax credits vanish and regulatory support weakens. Some potential buyers might also wait for upgraded driver assistance technology rolling out in the second half of 2026.
The 2026 delivery forecast assumes R1 and commercial van sales stay flat compared to 2025. That puts enormous pressure on R2 to deliver all the growth.
Spak calculated the company needs approximately 45,000 deliveries in the second half of the year. That’s an aggressive ramp for a vehicle just entering production. Supply chain issues or manufacturing problems could quickly derail the plan.
Losses Shrink But Cash Burn Continues
Rivian still operates in the red and won’t achieve positive EBITDA for multiple years. But progress is visible in the numbers.
The Volkswagen partnership proved valuable in 2025. Software and services revenue from the joint venture hit $576 million. That helped Rivian post $144 million in overall gross profit.
The automotive business alone recorded a $432 million loss in 2025. While still unprofitable, that’s a meaningful improvement from 2024’s $1.2 billion loss.
Scaringe acknowledged persistent supply chain headaches during the earnings call. He expressed confidence that previous manufacturing lessons will smooth the R2 launch.
The stock holds a consensus Hold rating across Wall Street. Eight analysts recommend buying, eight suggest holding, and four rate it a sell. The average price target sits at $17.70.
Shares finished Friday trading roughly 10% above UBS’s updated $16 target. That leaves Spak with little room for near-term optimism in his valuation model. He predicts continued volatility tied to production updates and delivery milestones. Trading remains choppy with the stock down over 10% year-to-date and carrying a beta of 1.77.
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