TLDR
- Robinhood shares declined 1.33% on Friday, settling at $69.19
- The brokerage is growing its prediction markets division while eliminating certain high-risk contract categories
- “Mention Markets” contracts — wagers on specific words appearing in public speeches — were discontinued over fraud and manipulation risks
- The platform collaborates exclusively with regulated providers Kalshi and ForecastEx, avoiding unregulated competitors such as Polymarket
- CEO Vlad Tenev characterized prediction markets as the company’s “fastest-growing business ever” in 2025, recording 12 billion contracts in trades
Robinhood continues to expand its presence in prediction markets, though the company is establishing firm boundaries around which offerings it will support.
The trading platform has discontinued specific event-based contracts, particularly “Mention Markets” — instruments allowing users to wager on whether certain words would be spoken during speeches or corporate earnings announcements. According to Jordan Sinclair, Robinhood UK President, these products were eliminated due to serious concerns regarding potential market abuse and illicit insider trading activities.
“We don’t necessarily offer all prediction markets or all event contracts,” Sinclair explained. “There are some we’ve chosen that aren’t right for our customers.”
This strategic withdrawal arrives during a period of heightened regulatory examination of prediction market platforms. Multiple prominent incidents have sparked alarm bells throughout the sector.
Substantial, strategically-timed positions materialized before a U.S. military operation targeting Iran. Israeli law enforcement brought charges against two people accused of leveraging classified defense intelligence to inform their betting decisions. Trading volume also spiked dramatically prior to a Nobel Peace Prize reveal, prompting officials to launch a confidential information leak probe.
Beyond the political arena, a former content editor associated with a prominent YouTube channel faced a $20,000 penalty for exploiting advance knowledge of unreleased video content to profit from related bets.
These incidents demonstrate the vulnerability of prediction markets to exploitation when outcomes depend on privileged, non-public information.
Regulated Partners Over Wild West Rivals
Robinhood has deliberately partnered with Kalshi and ForecastEx — both operating as regulated U.S. entities requiring user identity verification and adhering to strict American financial regulations. This approach sharply contrasts with platforms like Polymarket, which permit users to participate via cryptocurrency wallets with minimal know-your-customer protocols.
For a publicly traded enterprise, this strategic choice carries significant implications. Minimizing exposure to unregulated market activities helps mitigate both legal liabilities and potential damage to corporate reputation.
Robinhood views the expanding prediction market sector as a substantial revenue generator. Company projections target approximately $300 million in annual revenue from this business segment.
CEO Vlad Tenev proclaimed prediction markets the firm’s “fastest-growing business ever” during 2025. Throughout that year, users executed over 12 billion contracts via the platform.
Tenev has also suggested the possibility that this market could enter a “supercycle” phase, potentially reaching trillions in yearly trading volume eventually — though he provided no specific timeframe for such growth.
HOOD Stock on Friday
Robinhood’s stock decreased 1.33% during Friday’s trading session, ending at $69.19.
Financial analysts maintain an optimistic outlook on the company. Aggregating 17 professional analyst assessments, HOOD holds a Strong Buy consensus rating. The mean price target stands at $106.20, implying potential upside of 53.49% from Friday’s closing price.
Robinhood’s decision to eliminate Mention Markets comes after previous cases where industry participants faced sanctions for insider trading connected to comparable contract structures.
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