TLDR
- Robinhood (HOOD) stock fell 17% in two days after Q4 revenue of $1.28 billion missed the $1.35 billion consensus despite EPS beat
- Crypto transaction revenue collapsed 38% to $221 million as digital asset trading volumes declined sharply
- Analysts cut price targets but maintained bullish stance with average target of $135.46 suggesting 90.5% upside
- Prediction markets hit record $3.5 billion in January contract volumes, providing rare positive highlight
- Shares trading at $71.14, down 37% year-to-date as Wall Street debates whether selloff creates entry point
Robinhood Markets experienced a sharp selloff following its February 10 fourth-quarter earnings release. The stock lost nearly 17% over two trading sessions as investors reacted to disappointing revenue figures.
The company delivered earnings per share of $0.66, topping analyst estimates of $0.63. Revenue came in at $1.28 billion, falling $70 million short of the $1.35 billion Wall Street expected. The miss centered on weaker crypto trading activity.
Crypto transaction revenue plunged 38% to $221 million. Lower trading volumes across digital assets hammered this key revenue stream. Crypto represented roughly 17% of total Q4 revenue, making the decline particularly damaging.
December metrics disappointed across the board. User growth flatlined while net deposits weakened. Options and equities trading also lost momentum as the quarter closed.
Wall Street Lowers Targets But Keeps Buy Ratings
Truist Financial analyst David Smith cut his price target from $130 to $120 but kept his Buy rating intact. He described the Q4 report as “frustrating” with few positives outside prediction markets.
Smith’s $120 target still implies 68.7% upside from current prices. He noted January performance improved compared to December’s weakness. Long-term potential remains his focus despite short-term volatility.
Needham analyst John Todaro dropped his target to $100 from $135, suggesting 40.6% upside potential. He maintains his Buy rating and expects crypto weakness to persist for two quarters before recovering.
Todaro called Q4 results strong overall, meeting his internal projections. Prediction markets stood out with January volumes reaching a record $3.5 billion in contracts. However, crypto volumes and take rates declined alongside options and equities.
Prediction Markets Shine as Other Segments Struggle
Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley lowered his target from $155 to $135 while keeping his Buy rating. His target implies 89.8% upside. Moley views short-term headwinds as temporary obstacles rather than permanent problems.
“If you can stomach the volatility, HOOD is the best way to play secular growth in retail trading and the closest FinTech platform we’ve ever seen to achieving ‘super app’ status,” Moley wrote.
Bernstein SocGen Group reaffirmed an Outperform rating with a $160 price target on February 3. Analyst Gautam Chhugani stated the stock is nearing an “attractive valuation zone” despite potential for continued near-term volatility.
Bernstein noted cryptocurrency operations contributed 21% of total revenue year-to-date in 2025. This heavy exposure to crypto markets increases sensitivity to digital asset price swings and trading activity.
The consensus rating on TipRanks shows 14 Buy recommendations and two Hold ratings. Zero analysts recommend selling the stock. The average price target of $135.46 points to 90.5% upside from Friday’s close.
Shares ended the week at $71.14, marking a 37% decline year-to-date. The stock traded above $100 per share earlier this year before the recent selloff accelerated.
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