TLDR
- Robinhood (HOOD) dropped 9.7% to $89.85 on Monday, becoming the S&P 500’s biggest loser as Bitcoin fell to a 10-month low
- The stock has lost 21% in 2026 after surging over 200% last year, with crypto volatility and seasonal factors driving losses
- Football season’s end poses a revenue challenge as the sport generated nearly half of prediction market volume on Kalshi
- Piper Sandler holds its $155 target, citing upcoming Olympics, March Madness, and the CLARITY Act as catalysts
- Technical indicators show extreme oversold conditions with RSI at 23, suggesting a potential rebound
Robinhood got hammered on Monday. Shares tumbled 9.7% to $89.85, landing at the bottom of the S&P 500.
The decline extends a brutal start to 2026. The stock is now down 21% year-to-date, reversing momentum from last year’s spectacular 200% rally.
Bitcoin’s nosedive dealt a heavy blow. The cryptocurrency sank to $74,553, its lowest point in 10 months, before clawing back to around $78,500.
The drop followed Kevin Warsh’s nomination to chair the Federal Reserve. Crypto traders didn’t react well to the news.
Robinhood’s fortunes are closely linked to crypto markets. The platform supports trading in over 50 digital tokens, making revenue sensitive to both price movements and trading activity.
Historical data shows a strong correlation between the stock and Bitcoin. When crypto suffers, Robinhood shares typically take a hit.
Prediction Markets Lose Star Player
Football’s final game presents an unexpected challenge. Piper Sandler analysts highlight this as a growing investor worry.
The prediction markets business has exploded into Robinhood’s fastest-growing revenue source. Since August, football accounted for approximately half of all trading volume on Kalshi, the company’s main prediction markets partner.
This Sunday brings the curtain down on football season. The question now is whether other sports can pick up the slack.
Analyst Patrick Moley from Piper Sandler thinks they will. Winter Olympics action starts this month, while the NCAA basketball tournament arrives in March.
Wall Street Stays Bullish
Piper Sandler isn’t wavering on its call. The firm keeps an Overweight rating with a $155 price target, implying roughly 70% upside potential.
The CLARITY Act offers another reason for optimism. Last week, the Senate Agriculture Committee moved the crypto market structure bill forward, even after Coinbase withdrew backing in January.
This legislation could drive blockchain adoption higher. Robinhood might leverage it to scale up its token selection over the next several months.
Down the road, more trading catalysts are coming. The 2026 FIFA World Cup and midterm elections should pump up prediction market activity later in the year.
New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig may bring regulatory clarity. Clearer guidelines typically help companies plan and execute better.
The stock’s technicals scream oversold. A 14-day RSI reading near 23 often precedes short-term bounces.
Analyst consensus stays at Moderate Buy. The average price target hovers around $151, suggesting most on Wall Street view the selloff as excessive.
On Monday, Robinhood rolled out a stocks and shares ISA in the UK. The expansion adds another potential revenue stream for 2026.
Piper Sandler views Robinhood as the top way to capture retail trading growth. Analysts believe it’s closer to super app status than any other fintech platform.
The company launched its UK product while shares traded near oversold levels. Analysts expect upcoming sports events and crypto legislation to drive recovery.
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