TLDR
- Robinhood (HOOD) shares plunged 35% year-to-date and 30% over five days as Bitcoin’s collapse triggered selling across crypto-linked stocks.
- Quarterly earnings scheduled for February 10 have analysts projecting $0.62-$0.63 EPS with revenue climbing 30% to $1.32-$1.35 billion.
- Analyst forecasts show net interest revenues jumping 46.1% and assets under custody doubling to $355.93 billion while crypto revenues fall 19.8%.
- Wall Street holds Strong Buy consensus with 14 Buy ratings versus 4 Hold ratings and average price target implying 113% upside.
- Revenue diversification into subscriptions and net interest income expected to offset crypto volatility for more stable growth trajectory.
Robinhood shares have hit their lowest point of the year with earnings just around the corner. The drop has accelerated in recent sessions.
HOOD stock is down 35% year-to-date heading into its February 10 earnings report. The past week has been particularly painful, with shares losing roughly 30% as Bitcoin’s decline hammered crypto-related names.
Analysts expect the company to deliver earnings of $0.62 to $0.63 per share for the fourth quarter. That marks a decline from $1.01 per share reported in the year-ago period. Revenue is forecast to rise 30% year-over-year to land between $1.32 billion and $1.35 billion.
Consensus estimates have moved 5% higher over the last 30 days. This suggests analysts see reasons for optimism despite the stock’s poor performance.
Breaking Down Key Revenue Streams
Net interest revenues are projected at $432.57 million, reflecting 46.1% growth from the prior year. Transaction-based revenues should reach $809.88 million, up 20.5% year-over-year.
The crypto picture looks weaker. Transaction revenues from cryptocurrencies are expected to drop 19.8% to $287.06 million. This decline matches the recent Bitcoin sell-off that pressured the stock.
Options trading shows strength. Analysts forecast options revenues will increase 42% to $315.34 million. Equities trading revenue is projected to rise 42.3% to $86.83 million.
Securities lending revenue is expected to more than double, reaching $55.77 million. Margin interest revenue should surge 100.5% to $182.45 million.
Customer and Asset Metrics
Funded customers are forecast to total 27.12 million compared to 25.20 million a year earlier. The rate of customer growth will be a key focus for investors listening to the earnings call.
Assets under custody are projected to nearly double, climbing to $355.93 billion from $192.90 billion in the prior-year quarter. This metric indicates how much money users are keeping with the platform.
The company posted solid results through the first three quarters of 2025. Market volatility drove higher trading volumes across stocks, options, and other products during that stretch.
Analyst Sentiment Remains Positive
Despite the selloff, Wall Street maintains bullish views on HOOD stock. The consensus shows 14 Buy ratings and 4 Hold ratings from analysts covering the company over the past three months.
The average price target stands at $154.93, suggesting 113% potential upside from current trading levels. That’s a massive gap between the stock price and where analysts think it should trade.
Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani holds a Buy rating with 120% upside. He believes the stock is nearing attractive valuation territory though near-term swings could offer even better buying opportunities.
Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley maintains his Buy rating with over 100% upside potential. He views Robinhood as a top way to gain exposure to long-term retail trading expansion.
The stock has dropped 31.1% over the past month while the S&P 500 gained 0.5%. HOOD currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rating.
When earnings arrive Thursday, investors will scrutinize user growth trends and management’s outlook for 2025. Commentary on trading demand, potential crypto stabilization, and new product initiatives will drive the stock’s reaction. The company’s push into subscriptions and diversified revenue sources should help cushion crypto-related headwinds going forward.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
