TLDR
- Robinhood stock dropped 7.66% after-hours to $79.04 after Q4 revenue of $1.28B missed estimates of $1.34B despite EPS beating at 66 cents
- Crypto revenue crashed 38% year-over-year to $221M as weak digital asset prices dampened trading activity among retail investors
- Prediction markets revenue surged 375% to $147M, surpassing equity-trading revenue for the first time in company history
- The stock has fallen more than 42% from its October peak of $148.67 as crypto market weakness continues to weigh on performance
- Full-year 2025 net revenue jumped 52% to $4.5B while net income rose 35% to $1.9B despite Q4’s crypto headwinds
Robinhood stock took a beating in after-hours trading Tuesday. Shares fell 7.66% to $79.04 as investors punished the company for missing revenue targets.
The trading platform reported Q4 net revenues of $1.28 billion. That came up short of the $1.34 billion Wall Street expected.
The company did manage to beat on earnings. EPS of 66 cents topped the 63-cent consensus estimate.
Regular trading closed down 1.1% at $85.60. The stock has now cratered more than 42% from its October 3 high of $148.67.
Crypto revenue proved to be the problem child. The segment dropped 38% year-over-year to just $221 million.
This happened despite Robinhood’s push into digital assets. The company expanded crypto transfers and added new tokens throughout the quarter.
Net income fell 34% to $605 million. Lower crypto prices killed trading activity among retail investors.
Notional crypto volumes crawled higher by just 3% quarter-over-quarter. They reached $82.4 billion across Robinhood’s platform and its Bitstamp exchange.
That growth rate looked pathetic compared to other products. Equity volumes jumped 10% to $710 billion.
Prediction Markets Steal the Show
Options contracts traded rose 8% to 659 million. But the real story came from an unlikely source.
Robinhood’s “other” transaction-based revenue exploded 375% to $147 million. This category includes prediction markets and futures products.
That figure topped equity-trading revenue for the first time ever. The company launched prediction markets in March through Kalshi.
Demand for event contracts went through the roof throughout 2025. This new business line gave Robinhood something to brag about in an otherwise tough quarter.
Overall transaction-based revenue hit $776 million. That marked a 15% increase as traditional trading offset crypto weakness.
Full-Year Numbers Tell Different Story
The full-year picture looked much brighter. Net revenues for 2025 reached $4.5 billion.
That represented a 52% jump from 2024. Net income rose 35% to $1.9 billion for the year.
CEO Vlad Tenev said the company keeps working toward its “Financial SuperApp” vision. The platform posted record quarterly revenues despite the crypto drag.
Investors weren’t impressed. They focused on the revenue miss and cratering crypto business.
Rival Coinbase reports earnings Thursday. Analysts expect similar problems from reduced crypto trading volumes.
Coinbase shares fell 1.6% in after-hours trading after Robinhood’s report. The crypto-exposed trading platforms face continued headwinds from weak digital asset prices.
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