Key Takeaways
- Needham reduced HOOD price target from $100 to $90 while maintaining its Buy recommendation
- Compass Point lowered expectations from $127 to $108, retaining a Buy stance
- March trading data revealed weakening activity in equities, options, and cryptocurrency segments
- Shares have declined 52% in the last six months and 38% since the start of the year
- The company’s banking arm recently exceeded $1.5 billion in customer deposits
Robinhood is experiencing mounting pressure from Wall Street as a string of analysts have downgraded their outlooks following disappointing March performance data.
Needham’s John Todaro announced a price target reduction from $100 to $90 on Wednesday, though he maintained his Buy recommendation. His revision reflects concerns about decelerating growth across the platform’s core business lines.
“We see HOOD as the farthest along financial services platform in becoming a financial super app, but the recent volume metrics and lowered net interest revenue reflect a more muted environment,” Todaro stated in his research note.
The March performance report, published on March 30, revealed equity trading volumes of approximately $196 billion on a notional basis. Options trading activity totaled 187 million contracts, while cryptocurrency trading volumes reached $16 billion.
Todaro adjusted his equity and options forecasts downward for the first quarter of 2026 but maintained his cryptocurrency volume projections unchanged, noting that declines in that sector were already incorporated into previous estimates. His revenue expectations for both 2026 and 2027 were reduced, primarily due to anticipated lower trading activity and diminished net interest income.
The revised $90 price target reflects a 27 times multiple on Needham’s discounted fiscal 2027 EV/EBITDA projection.
This adjustment followed Tuesday’s move by Wolfe Research’s Steven Chubak, who slashed his target from $115 to $81 — representing approximately a 30% reduction. Chubak’s revision was triggered by declining crypto transaction revenues alongside broader cryptocurrency market weakness.
Compass Point Joins Downgrade Trend
Compass Point’s Ed Engel also trimmed his outlook on Wednesday, bringing his target down from $127 to $108 while preserving his Buy rating. His analysis projects first-quarter revenue landing 9% beneath consensus expectations, with shortfalls anticipated across all three major business segments.
Engel observed that retail trading activity typically weakens following five to six consecutive months of volatile market conditions, and many retail investor favorites have trended lower since early October.
He compared the current environment to April 2025, when analysts were reducing forecasts ahead of Liberation Day. Engel suggested that if markets rebound, Robinhood could emerge as a significant beneficiary given the anticipated 2026 IPO activity.
HOOD shares have plummeted 52% during the past six months and currently trade 46% beneath the 52-week peak of $153.86. The stock currently trades at a P/E multiple of 34.14 with a market capitalization of $63.1 billion. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears overvalued at present price levels.
Banking Operations Provide Silver Lining
Despite trading headwinds, Robinhood’s banking segment has achieved a milestone, surpassing $1.5 billion in total deposits with nearly 100,000 funded accounts — representing approximately 50% deposit growth over the recent period.
Bernstein SocGen Group reduced its price objective from $160 to $130 while maintaining an Outperform rating. The firm continues to forecast 25% earnings per share expansion by 2026 and a 30% compound annual revenue growth rate spanning 2025 through 2027.
Jefferies launched coverage with a Buy rating and an $88 price objective, highlighting opportunities from expanding global retail market participation and the platform’s diverse product offerings.
According to TipRanks, HOOD carries a Strong Buy consensus rating supported by 15 Buy recommendations and 2 Hold ratings. The average analyst price target sits at $117.33 — suggesting potential upside of approximately 67% from current trading levels. The Street-high target currently stands at $147.
Complete first-quarter earnings results are scheduled for release in May.
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