Key Takeaways
- Morgan Stanley’s ETrade platform is reportedly negotiating to manage SpaceX’s retail IPO share distribution, which could sideline Robinhood and SoFi
- Sources indicate SpaceX may be considering completely excluding both Robinhood and SoFi, though discussions remain fluid
- Bernstein SocGen reduced HOOD’s price objective from $160 down to $130, maintaining its Outperform designation
- Analysts still forecast 25% earnings per share expansion for 2026 and anticipate a 30% revenue compound annual growth rate spanning 2025–2027
- Shares of HOOD are currently trading approximately 54% beneath their 52-week peak of $153.86
Robinhood is navigating turbulent waters. Trading at $66.02, the stock has plunged more than half from its 52-week peak, and Monday delivered a one-two punch — troubling IPO news coupled with a reduced analyst price target.
According to Reuters, Morgan Stanley’s ETrade division is negotiating to spearhead the retail component of SpaceX’s highly anticipated initial public offering. Such an arrangement would position ETrade ahead of Robinhood and SoFi, both platforms that have actively pursued involvement in what many expect will be a record-breaking IPO.
Reports suggest SpaceX is contemplating excluding both companies from participation altogether. However, industry insiders emphasize that these plans remain preliminary and subject to change ahead of the offering, which is anticipated to materialize later this year.
Being left out would represent a significant blow. Robinhood and SoFi previously participated in notable public offerings including Arm Holdings’ $55 billion market debut and Instacart’s $9.9 billion IPO throughout 2023. Losing access to SpaceX would constitute more than just another missed opportunity — it would challenge Robinhood’s positioning as the premier destination for retail investors seeking access to major listings.
Neither platform maintains relationships with the investment banks coordinating the SpaceX public offering. Morgan Stanley, serving as a primary underwriter, is anticipated to channel substantial retail share allocations through ETrade, the platform it purchased in 2020.
Bernstein SocGen Adjusts Price Objective
Also on Monday, Bernstein SocGen reduced its HOOD price target from $160 to $130, citing valuation considerations. The firm maintained its Outperform recommendation, signaling continued confidence in the stock — albeit with tempered price expectations.
The adjusted target incorporates a reduced earnings multiple: 35 times projected 2027 EPS, decreased from the previous 40 times multiple. This calculation relies on an anticipated 32% EPS compound annual growth rate between 2025 and 2027.
Despite the reduction, analysts maintain an optimistic perspective on Robinhood’s core operations. The firm anticipates 25% earnings per share growth throughout 2026, even accounting for anticipated weakness in first-quarter equities and cryptocurrency activity. Revenue projections indicate a 30% CAGR extending through 2027.
Prediction markets represent an emerging growth catalyst. Bernstein SocGen estimates these platforms will generate approximately 17% of trading revenue and 10% of overall revenue during 2026, bolstered by Robinhood’s distribution arrangement with Kalshi and its proprietary Rothera exchange infrastructure.
Additional Analyst Perspectives
Cryptocurrency activity is also positioned for recovery. Analysts model a 79% year-over-year rebound in digital asset trading volumes throughout the second half of 2026, supported by the strategic Bitstamp acquisition.
Non-trading revenue streams are projected to expand 27% year-over-year. This encompasses margin lending against a $17.2 billion portfolio, Gold membership subscriptions reaching 4.2 million users, and banking deposits surpassing $1 billion.
Wall Street maintains divergent perspectives. Barclays carries an Overweight rating with a $124 price objective. Truist maintains a Buy recommendation at $120. Jefferies recently initiated coverage with a Buy rating and an $88 target. Cantor Fitzgerald adopts a more conservative stance, reducing its target to $95 based on revised revenue projections.
Robinhood’s board of directors recently authorized a $1.5 billion share repurchase initiative, which generated favorable responses from multiple research firms.
The equity currently carries a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.25 with a market capitalization of $59.44 billion.
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