TLDR
- Roblox reports Q4 2025 earnings Thursday after hours with revenue estimates at $2.08 billion
- Analysts forecast loss of $0.47 per share versus $0.33 loss in prior year quarter
- Daily active users expected to surge 65% to 141.31 million for the quarter
- Stock has tumbled 20% year-to-date amid concerns over spending and bookings growth
- Wall Street maintains Moderate Buy rating with average price target at $118.26
Roblox unveils fourth quarter results Thursday evening. Shares have struggled this year, falling 20% despite strong user engagement metrics.
Revenue projections land at $2.08 billion for the quarter. This represents 109% growth from the year-ago period.
Wall Street expects a loss of $0.47 per share. The Q4 2024 loss came in at $0.33 per share.
Bookings estimates reach $2.07 billion for the period. That compares to $1.36 billion in last year’s fourth quarter.
The stock has declined 11% over the trailing twelve months. Heavy infrastructure investment and moderating bookings have pressured shares.
Platform Engagement Remains Robust
Daily active users are forecast to reach 141.31 million. The metric stood at 85.30 million in Q4 2024.
Total engagement hours should hit 32.38 billion. Last year’s quarter saw 18.70 billion hours engaged.
Regional growth appears consistent across markets. US and Canada DAUs are projected at 23.83 million from 18.00 million previously.
European users are expected to climb to 33.33 million from 21.10 million. Asia-Pacific estimates show 44.26 million DAUs versus 22.30 million last year.
Rest of world forecasts stand at 42.53 million compared to 23.80 million. The platform continues expanding its global footprint.
Wall Street Weighs In on Valuation
Canaccord analyst Jason Tilchen trimmed his target to $140 from $160. He maintained his Buy rating on the shares.
Tilchen cited improved AI search tools and popular game releases. User growth and engagement metrics have strengthened.
However, management’s 2026 outlook has created uncertainty. Age verification requirements and infrastructure costs remain headwinds.
The analyst still sees positive momentum in core metrics. Revenue and user trends should stay healthy despite challenges.
ARK Investment Management bought 120,812 shares in early January. The purchase valued at roughly $8.15 million signals continued conviction.
Cathie Wood’s funds have maintained exposure through recent volatility. The transaction occurred across two separate ETFs.
Market Expects Volatility After Print
Options pricing suggests traders anticipate a large move. The implied volatility indicates a potential 15.03% swing post-earnings.
This calculation uses at-the-money straddles for options expiring after the report. It reflects market sentiment around result uncertainty.
Consensus ratings show twelve Buy recommendations. Seven analysts rate it Hold while one suggests Sell.
The average price target sits at $118.26 per share. This implies roughly 80.83% upside from current trading levels.
Earnings estimates have been revised lower recently. The consensus loss forecast dropped 11.3% in the past thirty days.
Analyst revisions often signal shifting sentiment. Downward changes can indicate weakening confidence ahead of results.
Revenue projections have remained relatively stable. Most analysts cluster around the $2.07 billion to $2.08 billion range.
Geographic diversity provides multiple growth avenues. Each major region shows double-digit percentage increases in user activity.
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