TLDR
- Rocket Lab ($RKLB) reports Q4 2025 earnings on Thursday, February 26.
- Analysts expect a loss of $0.10 per share with revenue of ~$176.8 million, up 34% year over year.
- The stock has dropped nearly 20% in the past month after Neutron’s Stage 1 tank ruptured during testing.
- Wall Street holds a Moderate Buy consensus with an average price target of $92, about 30% above current levels.
- Investors are watching closely for a confirmed launch date for the Neutron rocket.
Rocket Lab ($RKLB) is set to report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings after market close on Thursday, February 26.
The stock has slid nearly 20% over the past month, sitting around $69.85 as of February 23.
That drop came after the company disclosed that Neutron’s Stage 1 tank ruptured overnight during a hydrostatic pressure qualification test — an unwelcome headline ahead of earnings.
Despite the drop, the stock is still up about 1.58% year-to-date, following a 150% rally in 2025.
Analysts expect Q4 revenue of $176.83 million, up from $132.4 million in the same quarter last year — roughly 34% growth year over year.
On the bottom line, the consensus estimate calls for a loss of $0.10 per share, matching Q4 2024’s loss.
However, some analysts think the actual result could come in better than expected.
Rocket Lab launched nearly twice as many missions in Q4 2025 compared to Q4 2024, which should translate into higher revenue and potentially narrower losses.
The stock currently trades at over 62 times sales with no profits to speak of, which keeps some analysts cautious on valuation even after the recent pullback.
Neutron Rocket in Focus
The Neutron rocket is the central storyline heading into this earnings call.
Originally targeted for a 2025 launch, Neutron has been pushed to 2026, with no firm date yet confirmed.
The tank rupture has added more uncertainty to that timeline. TD Cowen analyst Gautam Khanna raised his price target from $60 to $100 last month but warned the incident could delay Neutron’s planned Q2 launch, making a second 2026 launch unlikely.
Baird’s Peter Arment still sees Neutron as a potential direct competitor to SpaceX’s Falcon 9 in the medium-lift market.
Investors will be paying close attention to whether management provides a specific launch window during Thursday’s call.
Removing that uncertainty around timing could act as a catalyst for the stock, regardless of the headline earnings numbers.
Analyst Ratings and Price Targets
Wall Street currently holds a Moderate Buy consensus on RKLB, based on five Buy ratings and four Hold ratings assigned over the past three months.
The average price target sits at $92, implying about 30% upside from current levels.
The most bullish target on the Street is $120, which would represent nearly 70% upside from here.
Not everyone is convinced though — some analysts view the stock as overvalued at current prices even after the recent decline.
As of February 23, RKLB was trading at $69.85 with a market cap of approximately $38 billion.
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