Key Takeaways
- Rocket Lab’s 2025 revenue surged 38% to reach $601.8 million, supported by a record-breaking $1.85 billion backlog
- An $816 million Space Development Agency contract solidified Rocket Lab’s position in government aerospace programs
- AST SpaceMobile generated $70.9 million in 2025 revenue as it continues early-stage commercial infrastructure development
- AST holds more than $3.9 billion in pro forma liquidity to support ongoing satellite constellation deployment
- Analyst consensus favors Rocket Lab with a Moderate Buy, while AST receives a Reduce rating from Wall Street
Both Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile have captured significant attention in the space investment sector, yet these companies operate under fundamentally different business models and carry distinct risk-reward profiles. One has established a diversified revenue stream with proven execution. The other pursues a transformative vision that could revolutionize global mobile communications.
Rocket Lab delivered impressive financial performance throughout 2025. The company recorded revenue growth of 38%, bringing total revenue to $601.8 million. The fourth quarter alone generated a company record of $179.7 million. Perhaps most significantly, Rocket Lab closed the year with a contract backlog totaling $1.85 billion—a 73% increase year-over-year. This substantial backlog provides greater revenue visibility than most competitors in the sector can demonstrate.
The company’s revenue streams have evolved considerably beyond launch services alone. Throughout 2025, product sales generated $371.6 million while service operations contributed $230.2 million. Rocket Lab has successfully expanded into spacecraft manufacturing, component production, and integrated systems for defense and national security applications.
Government Contracts Anchor Rocket Lab’s Business Model
A significant milestone came when Rocket Lab secured an $816 million contract from the Space Development Agency. This substantial award demonstrates the confidence government agencies place in the company’s capabilities for complex, multi-year programs. The development of the Neutron medium-lift launch vehicle represents the next anticipated catalyst for growth.
However, profitability remains elusive. Rocket Lab reported a net loss of $198.2 million for 2025. Company leadership also projected continued adjusted EBITDA losses through at least the first quarter of 2026. Market valuations currently reflect optimism about future operational scale rather than present-day earnings.
AST SpaceMobile operates in an entirely different segment of the space economy. The company is constructing a satellite constellation designed to deliver cellular broadband connectivity directly to unmodified smartphones—eliminating the need for specialized equipment. Success at commercial scale could unlock access to underserved markets that conventional satellite providers cannot economically reach.
AST remains in the early deployment phase of this ambitious plan. The company reported full-year 2025 revenue of $70.9 million. Fourth-quarter revenue reached $54.3 million, primarily generated through gateway system deliveries, partnerships with mobile network operators, and achievement of government program milestones.
Strong Liquidity Position Supports AST SpaceMobile’s Deployment Timeline
The company closed 2025 with $2.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents. Following additional capital raises completed in early 2026, pro forma liquidity exceeded $3.9 billion. This substantial cash position provides AST with the financial runway necessary to continue satellite deployment without immediate capital constraints.
AST has secured more than $1.2 billion in contracted revenue commitments from commercial partners. For a company that only recently began generating meaningful revenue, this represents a significant validation of market demand. Nevertheless, AST continues to operate at substantial losses, and execution success depends critically on launch cadence and network performance delivery.
Wall Street analyst sentiment clearly distinguishes between the two companies. Rocket Lab maintains a Moderate Buy consensus rating, comprising 2 Strong Buy ratings, 7 Buy ratings, 7 Hold ratings, and 1 Sell rating. In contrast, AST SpaceMobile carries a Reduce consensus, with 2 Buy ratings, 6 Hold ratings, and 3 Sell ratings.
Investment Considerations
Analyst community sentiment reflects greater confidence in Rocket Lab’s established operational framework and diversified revenue model. While AST’s potential upside is acknowledged as substantial, the path to commercialization presents more uncertainty at this stage. Rocket Lab offers the more mature business with proven revenue streams, operational diversification, and broader analyst support. AST SpaceMobile represents the higher-risk opportunity with potentially transformative returns if its space-based cellular network achieves commercial viability.
Rocket Lab presents the more established investment case today. AST SpaceMobile offers the more ambitious vision with commensurately higher uncertainty. The appropriate choice between these two space stocks depends entirely on individual risk tolerance and investment time horizon.
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