TLDR
- Samsara (IOT) rallied 15% Friday following fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $0.18 per share, crushing the Street’s $0.13 estimate by a nickel
- Quarterly revenue reached $444.3M, marking a 28% annual increase and exceeding the $422.3M consensus
- Annual recurring revenue climbed to $1.9B, representing approximately 30% growth from the prior year
- Fiscal 2027 EPS outlook of $0.65–$0.69 substantially exceeded Wall Street’s ~$0.33 projection—more than doubling expectations
- Several Wall Street analysts maintained Buy/Outperform recommendations, with targets spanning $39 to $44
Samsara (IOT) delivered impressive fiscal fourth-quarter results Thursday evening, triggering an immediate response from investors. Shares climbed 15% Friday to reach $34.10, recovering a portion of the 17% decline the stock had experienced year-to-date before earnings were released.
The financial performance left little room for criticism. Quarterly revenue totaled $444.3 million, representing 28.3% growth compared to the year-earlier period and comfortably surpassing the $422.3 million Wall Street projection. Adjusted earnings per share reached $0.18, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.13 by five cents.
The IoT platform provider ended its fiscal year with annual recurring revenue of $1.9 billion, marking 30% year-over-year expansion—a critical indicator for a business still prioritizing growth.
Forward Outlook Captures Attention
The company’s forward-looking projections may have resonated as strongly as the quarterly beat itself. Samsara established its fiscal 2027 earnings outlook at $0.65–$0.69 per share. This figure dwarfs the Street consensus hovering around $0.33—representing more than a 100% premium to analyst models. First-quarter fiscal 2027 EPS guidance of $0.12–$0.13 similarly exceeded expectations.
Executives laid out revenue growth targets of 21%–22% for fiscal 2027 and emphasized ongoing artificial intelligence initiatives.
Evercore ISI’s Kirk Materne maintained his Outperform rating while naming Samsara a “top idea,” replacing Oracle in that designation. He highlighted the company’s vertical integration as protection against AI-driven disruption—a compelling narrative given recent pressure on software equities around this concern.
BTIG’s Nick Altmann retained his Buy rating while adjusting his price objective from $55 down to $45, reflecting broader valuation compression across the sector. He emphasized Samsara’s proprietary data assets as a competitive edge for AI feature development.
Wall Street Price Objectives
BMO Capital Markets increased its target to $44 from $40 while maintaining an Outperform rating. Piper Sandler boosted its objective to $39 from $37 with an Overweight rating, suggesting approximately 22.8% potential appreciation from the previous close. KeyCorp adjusted its target upward to $41 from $40, keeping an Overweight stance.
Royal Bank of Canada maintains a $35 price objective.
The aggregate rating across 17 Wall Street analysts stands at “Moderate Buy” with a mean price target of $45.69. The breakdown includes one Strong Buy, eleven Buy ratings, four Hold ratings, and one Sell recommendation.
Samsara’s trading range over the past 52 weeks spans from $23.38 to $48.40. The company commands a market capitalization of approximately $18.3 billion.
One consideration worth noting: company insiders have been net sellers. Co-founders John Bicket and Sanjit Biswas each divested 263,900 shares on January 6 at $34.40 apiece—transactions valued at roughly $9 million per executive. During the trailing 90-day period, insiders collectively sold approximately 2.9 million shares worth $92 million in aggregate. Despite this activity, corporate insiders maintain roughly 46.5% ownership.
Institutional investors control 96% of outstanding shares, with numerous funds increasing positions in recent reporting periods.
The stock’s 50-day moving average currently rests at $30.39, and Friday’s closing price of $34.10 positions shares comfortably above that technical level.
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