TLDR
- Costco reports Q2 fiscal 2026 results on March 5, 2026
- COST stock is up 13.6% year-to-date after falling ~6% in 2025
- Analysts expect EPS of $4.55, up from $4.02 a year ago, and revenue of $69.25 billion
- Wall Street consensus is Strong Buy with an average price target of $1,081.57
- COST trades at a forward P/E of 49.6, well above the sector average of 18.9
Costco is approaching its fiscal second-quarter earnings announcement scheduled for March 5 with significant positive momentum.
Following a roughly 6% decline throughout 2025, COST shares have staged an impressive comeback — surging 13.6% in 2026 to date. This type of reversal tends to capture the attention of market analysts and investors alike.
Costco Wholesale Corporation, COST
Wall Street expects the wholesale retailer to post earnings of $4.55 per share for the second quarter, representing an improvement from the $4.02 reported during the comparable period last year. Revenue projections stand at $69.25 billion, marking a 10% year-over-year increase.
Recent sales figures have painted an optimistic picture heading into the earnings announcement. The company reported net sales of approximately $21 billion for January, reflecting a 9.3% increase compared to the prior year.
Throughout the first 22 weeks of fiscal 2026, Costco has achieved an 8.5% sales increase year-over-year. Comparable store sales have demonstrated consistent growth across different geographic markets.
The e-commerce segment has emerged as a particular strength. Online sales have expanded at double-digit rates, although any deceleration in this channel might concern market participants.
Membership trends represent another critical metric worth monitoring. Expanding membership rolls — partially fueled by inflation driving more consumers toward value-oriented retailers — have provided consistent support. The company’s private-label brand, Kirkland Signature, remains instrumental in building customer loyalty and maintaining competitive positioning.
Analyst Views
Bank of America’s Christopher Nardone maintained his Buy rating on COST before the earnings release and established a $1,185 price target. His analysis highlights Costco’s broad demographic appeal — resonating with affluent consumers while simultaneously attracting budget-conscious shoppers through its pricing model.
Citi analyst Steven Zaccone adopted a more measured position, keeping his Hold rating while modestly increasing his price target from $990 to $1,000.
The broader Wall Street consensus stands at Strong Buy, supported by 19 Buy ratings, four Hold recommendations, and one Sell rating. The average analyst price target of $1,081.57 suggests approximately 7% upside potential from present levels. The most bullish forecast on the Street reaches $1,205, implying nearly 20% appreciation.
The Valuation Question
Costco’s 10-year total return of 662% has more than doubled what the S&P 500 delivered over the same timeframe. Revenue has expanded at a 9.3% compound annual growth rate over the past five years without a single down year.
This impressive performance comes with a premium valuation. COST currently commands a forward P/E ratio of 49.6, substantially higher than the sector average of 18.9. The trailing P/E stands at 53.6 — roughly 15% above Nvidia’s valuation multiple.
Some market participants view this premium as excessive. Any disappointment in comparable sales metrics or membership growth figures could trigger a sharp stock decline.
First quarter 2026 net sales totaled $66 billion. The retailer’s business model — purchasing large volumes of a curated product selection — provides leverage in supplier negotiations and enables competitive consumer pricing.
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