TLDR
- Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries fell to 418,227 vehicles, missing analyst expectations of 422,850 units
- The company’s stock gained just 11.4% in 2025, trailing the S&P 500’s 16.4% and Nasdaq’s 20.4% returns
- Musk’s promised robotaxi service serving half the U.S. by end of 2025 never launched
- Wall Street consensus rates Tesla as “Hold” with a $394.12 price target, 10.26% below current levels
- Full self-driving switches from $9,000 one-time purchase to $99 monthly subscription on February 14
Tesla reports fourth-quarter earnings on January 28, and recent data suggests trouble ahead. The electric vehicle maker’s latest delivery numbers paint a picture of declining momentum.
Tesla delivered 418,227 vehicles in Q4 2025. Analysts expected 422,850. Full-year deliveries totaled 1,636,129 against forecasts of 1,640,752.
These misses matter because vehicle sales drive Tesla’s revenue and profits. The company’s shrinking market share makes the situation worse as competitors flood the EV market.
Tesla stock gained 11.4% in 2025. That trails the S&P 500’s 16.4% gain and the Nasdaq Composite’s 20.4% climb. The underperformance reflects growing concerns about Tesla’s core business.
Broken Promises on Robotaxis
CEO Elon Musk said Tesla’s robotaxi service would reach half the U.S. population by end of 2025. That didn’t happen. The promise joins a long list of missed deadlines from Musk.
The company lost its trademark for “Cybercab,” the planned robotaxi name. A French beverage firm filed first in 2024 while Tesla was late with paperwork. The humanoid “Optimus” robot also remains years from production despite optimistic claims.
Tesla registered just 227 vehicles in India throughout 2025. The weak performance in this major market raises questions about international expansion plans.
Subscription Model Replaces One-Time Purchase
Tesla ends its $9,000 one-time full self-driving purchase option on February 14. The company moves to a $99 monthly subscription model. The change could boost recurring revenue if adoption grows.
Wall Street analysts changed their tune on Tesla. The consensus rating dropped to “Hold” with a 12-month price target of $394.12. That’s 10.26% below recent trading prices.
Rating revisions since the new year skewed toward “Hold” or “Sell.” Analyst confidence in Tesla’s growth story appears shaken by mounting operational challenges.
Tesla trades at premium valuations compared to traditional automakers. The price-to-sales and price-to-earnings ratios suggest investors still view it as a high-margin tech company. But the reality is a capital-intensive manufacturer with declining sales and profit margins.
The January 28 earnings call will likely feature Musk promoting robotaxi and AI initiatives. Investors should focus on actual business results rather than future promises. The core automotive business shows weakness that premium valuations don’t reflect.
Tesla stock closed at $439.20 on January 14, up 104.99% from its 52-week low of $214.25. Despite recent challenges, shares rallied 41% over the prior six months. The stock remains volatile and momentum-driven rather than fundamentals-driven.
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