TLDRs:
- SoFi dips 1.4% as investors anticipate early-2026 rate changes and economic releases.
- Fintech volatility rises, with Affirm, Upstart, and Robinhood also pulling back in year-end trading.
- Credit and deposits under scrutiny, as SoFi’s lending and banking operations face shifting expectations.
- Investors eye January data, including PMI and employment reports, for guidance on interest rates.
Shares of SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) closed down 1.4% at $26.18 on Wednesday, ending the final trading session of 2025 on a cautious note.
Trading ranged between $26.08 and $26.90, with approximately 34 million shares exchanging hands. U.S. markets were closed on Thursday for New Year’s Day.
The decline reflected a broader trend in thin, holiday-week trading, where investors took profits after a strong year. The S&P 500 fell 0.74% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.76% during the same session. Market observers noted that limited liquidity can amplify small moves.
“It’s perfectly fine in any bull market to have moments of cost,” said Giuseppe Sette, co-founder and president of Reflexivity, describing the impact of profit-taking on high-beta stocks.
Interest Rates and Economic Data in Focus
Investors are closely monitoring the outlook for U.S. interest rates as they approach early 2026. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.163% on Wednesday, up 3.5 basis points after a decline in weekly jobless claims, signaling potential shifts in borrowing costs.
The attention to yields is particularly relevant for SoFi because it operates both as a lender and a bank. Rising rates can pressure high-growth fintech valuations but may also benefit banking margins if deposit costs increase more slowly than lending yields, a dynamic known as net interest margin.
Other fintech peers mirrored SoFi’s decline in the session. Affirm fell 1.8%, Upstart dropped 2.7%, and Robinhood eased 2.1%, highlighting the sensitivity of these companies to investor risk appetite.
SoFi’s Business Expansion and Credit Performance
Originally a student-loan refinancing platform, SoFi has broadened into a comprehensive financial services app offering lending, investing, and deposit products. The company raised its 2025 profit forecast in October following strong third-quarter results, supported by fee-based revenue growth.
Investors heading into January are watching whether credit performance remains steady, particularly as personal-loan balances grow and delinquencies in consumer credit become more pronounced. Analysts also emphasize monitoring deposit growth and the performance of non-lending business lines, which can provide stability when lending slows.
From a technical perspective, traders will watch whether SOFI maintains levels above $26, a key intraday low, while resistance sits just below $27. These levels may guide investor sentiment in the coming sessions.
Early-January Economic Reports to Shape Outlook
January promises to be a critical month for SoFi investors. The Institute for Supply Management will release its December manufacturing PMI on Monday, January 5, and the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics will report December employment figures on Friday, January 9. These releases are expected to influence interest rate expectations and overall market sentiment.
SoFi has not confirmed a date for its next earnings report, though Nasdaq’s calendar estimates January 26. Analysts anticipate that guidance on loan growth, credit costs, and fee-based revenue will be central to investor decision-making.
With liquidity returning after the holiday period, early economic data will likely recalibrate market expectations. High-beta fintech names like SoFi remain particularly sensitive to shifts in yields and broader risk appetite as 2026 begins.
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