TLDRs ;
- Morgan Stanley lowers Spotify target, but analyst sentiment remains broadly positive.
- Spotify video and premium tiers expand monetization and user engagement.
- CEO change may influence investor sentiment into January 2026.
- Triple witching and macro events could trigger short-term SPOT price swings.
Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE: SPOT) closed slightly lower on Thursday, December 18, 2025, and remained mostly flat in after-hours trading as investors digested analyst updates, positioning cues, and broader macroeconomic factors ahead of Friday’s market open.
The stock ended the day at $563.82, down 0.43%, and traded near $563.83 after hours.
While Thursday’s session saw moderate activity, shares ranged between $562.72 and $576.70, with roughly 1.37 million changing hands, the stock remains well within its 52-week range of $443.21 to $785.00. The pattern reflects Spotify’s 2025 narrative, a focus on profitability, new monetization strategies, and periodic pullbacks as risk appetite fluctuates.
Analyst Targets Remain Bullish, Adjusted Slightly
After the closing bell, the spotlight was on refreshed analyst price targets rather than any blockbuster announcement. Morgan Stanley’s Benjamin Swinburne lowered the firm’s price target from $800 to $775 while maintaining an Overweight rating. Meanwhile, Citizens initiated coverage with a Market Outperform and an $800 price target, citing Spotify’s evolution into a multi-vertical audio platform with pricing leverage.
Consolidated Street data from StockAnalysis shows an average target of $762.68 and a median of $775, with low and high targets spanning $550 to $900. Overall, 28 analysts currently maintain a Buy rating, reflecting optimism around Spotify’s revenue and earnings growth, projected to rise from €17.52 billion to €20.06 billion in revenue and €7.33 to €12.51 in EPS over the next year.
Product Expansion Drives Engagement
Beyond analyst commentary, investors are eyeing Spotify’s product innovations. The company has expanded music video access to Premium users in North America, following a beta in nearly 100 markets. Data shows users engage more deeply after viewing videos, replaying and sharing tracks, with Wrapped 2025 driving engagement from over 200 million users in 24 hours, a 19% increase from the prior year.
Additionally, Spotify is testing higher-priced Premium tiers, including a Premium Platinum option with lossless audio and AI-powered tools. This tiered approach allows Spotify to grow average revenue per user (ARPU) without blanket price increases. Such developments are increasingly central to investor debates over the company’s growth and monetization trajectory.
Leadership Transition Adds Calendar Risk
Investors also have the upcoming leadership transition on their radar. Founder Daniel Ek will become Executive Chairman on January 1, 2026, while Alex Norström and Gustav Söderström step in as Co-CEOs. While the change formalizes an operational structure already in place, it represents a near-term “calendar risk” that could influence market sentiment, particularly in the first trading sessions of 2026.
Regulatory and geopolitical factors may also weigh on investor sentiment. U.S. commentary on potential retaliation tied to EU tech regulations has repeatedly highlighted Spotify, adding a layer of caution for Europe-linked stocks.
Pre-Open Volatility and Triple Witching
For traders focused on short-term moves, attention is on technical levels and market events. StockInvest identified support around $560.97, with resistance in the mid-$580s to low-$600s. Stock Traders Daily highlighted weak near-term sentiment, emphasizing these bands as potential premarket guides.
Friday, December 19, also marks a “Triple Witching” day, simultaneous expiration of stock options, index futures, and single-stock futures, that could amplify volatility. Investors are also watching U.S. economic releases, including New York Fed commentary and Existing Home Sales, along with global developments such as potential interest rate changes by the Bank of Japan.
Bottom Line
Spotify ended Thursday modestly lower and remained flat after hours, suggesting investors are taking a cautious, wait-and-see approach. Key drivers heading into Friday include bullish analyst targets in the mid-$700s, product expansion through video and premium tiers, the January leadership transition, and macro and volatility events. While the after-hours session may seem quiet, these factors set the stage for potential swings in premarket and early trading sessions.
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