TLDR
- Strategy (MSTR) releases Q4 2025 earnings Thursday, February 5 after market close with analysts forecasting $119.12 million revenue and $0.08 loss per share
- Company added 855 Bitcoin for $75.3 million on February 2, pushing total holdings to 713,502 BTC with $76,052 average cost basis
- Stock plunged 60% over past year and 12% year-to-date as Bitcoin dropped below $73,000 in worst crash since November 2024
- Company’s entire Bitcoin position trades below average purchase price for first time as cryptocurrency volatility intensifies
- Wall Street maintains Strong Buy consensus with $437.11 average target while options traders anticipate 8.32% post-earnings swing
Strategy delivers Q4 2025 financial results on Thursday, February 5 after the closing bell. The report comes at a tough time for the Bitcoin treasury firm.
Analysts project revenue of $119.12 million, marking a 1.3% increase year-over-year. The consensus estimate calls for a $0.08 per share loss compared to last year’s $3.03 loss.
The company hasn’t had a strong earnings track record lately. It fell short of estimates in six out of nine recent quarters.
MSTR stock trades at $129.03, sliding 7% in 24 hours. The shares have dropped 60% over the past year and 12% in 2026.
Latest Bitcoin Purchase Expands Holdings
Strategy revealed a fresh Bitcoin acquisition through an SEC filing on February 2. The company purchased 855 Bitcoin for roughly $75.3 million.
The coins cost an average of $87,974 each. This buy lifted Strategy’s total Bitcoin stash to 713,502 BTC.
The purchase followed a turbulent crypto market weekend. Bitcoin plummeted below $73,000 on February 3, recording its steepest fall since early November 2024.
Crypto liquidations reached over $660 million in a 24-hour period. Bitcoin accounted for $112.7 million of these forced exits. The carnage affected more than 161,000 traders.
Strategy’s average acquisition cost across all Bitcoin holdings stands at $76,052 per coin. With Bitcoin trading near $74,674, the entire position sits underwater.
This represents the first instance of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings falling below average cost. The company keeps no Bitcoin pledged as collateral, eliminating forced liquidation risk.
Analyst Community Backs Stock
Cantor Fitzgerald’s Ramsey El-Assal started coverage with an Overweight rating recently. He assigned a $213 price target.
El-Assal highlighted the company’s dedicated Bitcoin strategy. He views the capital-raising method for Bitcoin accumulation as successful.
Bitcoin price fluctuations don’t create serious balance sheet concerns, the analyst noted. He believes increasing institutional Bitcoin adoption will benefit the strategy long-term.
El-Assal cautioned about volatility risks, regulatory shifts, and dilution concerns. These elements could impact future results.
Strategy tracks market Net Asset Value (mNAV) to compare market value versus Bitcoin per-share value. During Bitcoin’s rally, mNAV exceeded 1 by a wide margin.
The premium made MSTR shares more attractive than direct Bitcoin purchases for many traders. As Bitcoin declined from October, mNAV compressed toward 1, shrinking the premium.
MSCI evaluated whether companies holding over 50% crypto assets should stay in its indices. The organization postponed any changes on January 6, citing need for additional study.
Market Expectations Run High
Eleven analysts cover Strategy stock. Nine assign Buy ratings while two recommend Hold. This creates a Strong Buy consensus.
The average price target reaches $437.11, suggesting 228% potential upside. Options pricing indicates traders expect an 8.32% move following earnings.
The company has missed earnings expectations in six of nine recent quarters while maintaining its Bitcoin accumulation strategy with 713,502 BTC now valued below the $76,052 average purchase price.
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