TLDR
- SMCI stock rallied 9.3% to $52.39 after breaking above its 50-day moving average following a 30% post-earnings decline.
- The company missed Q2 earnings by $0.03 per share at $0.41, with revenue of $5.76 billion falling short of expectations.
- CEO Charles Liang sold 200,000 shares for $12 million while insiders dumped $27.9 million total over three months.
- Analysts maintain a Hold consensus rating with price targets ranging from $24 to $52, averaging $45.36.
- Trading volume dropped 6% despite the price surge, with institutional investors holding 84% of shares.
Super Micro Computer shares closed at $52.39 on Wednesday, posting a 9.3% gain. The move pushed SMCI above its 50-day simple moving average for the first time since August.
The rally marks a reversal after the stock dropped 30% following Q2 earnings. Shares had been under pressure since the company reported results on August 5th. The stock opened at $47.94 and touched an intraday high of $52.48.
Trading volume came in at 48 million shares, down 6% from the 51.2 million daily average. The lighter volume raises questions about the strength of the breakout.
Earnings Miss Triggered Summer Selloff
SMCI reported Q2 earnings of $0.41 per share, missing the $0.44 consensus by three cents. Revenue reached $5.76 billion, up 8.5% year-over-year but below the $5.88 billion estimate.
Net margin stood at 4.77% with return on equity at 17.14%. The company earned $6.25 per share in the year-ago quarter. Management issued Q1 2026 guidance between $0.40 and $0.52 per share.
Analysts project $1.86 in full-year earnings per share. The stock trades at a PE ratio of 31.56 with a market cap of $31.13 billion.
Wall Street Divided on Outlook
Analyst ratings show mixed sentiment. One rates SMCI a Strong Buy, six say Buy, nine have Hold ratings, and two recommend Sell. The consensus lands at Hold with an average price target of $45.36.
Goldman Sachs maintains a Sell rating with a $27 target. Citigroup holds Neutral with a $52 target, up from $37. Wedbush set a $30 price objective with a Neutral stance.
Zacks Research upgraded to Hold in August. Sanford C. Bernstein also moved to Hold in September. Price targets span from $24 to $52 across 18 analysts.
Heavy Insider Selling Continues
CEO Charles Liang sold 200,000 shares at $60 on July 28th, totaling $12 million. He still owns 40.4 million shares worth $2.4 billion. The sale reduced his stake by 0.49%.
CFO David Weigand offloaded 25,000 shares at $45.14 on September 15th for $1.13 million. The transaction cut his position by 20%, leaving him with 100,188 shares.
Insiders sold 490,000 shares worth $27.9 million over 90 days. Company insiders hold 16.3% while institutions own 84.06%.
The technical setup shows the 50-day moving average at $46.90 and the 200-day at $42.66. SMCI carries a beta of 1.56 with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.74. The quick ratio sits at 3.25 and current ratio at 5.25.
Competition from companies like Alibaba in the AI chip space adds pressure. The stock needs to hold above the 50-day average to sustain momentum.
