TLDR
- Super Micro Computer reports Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings after close February 3 with analysts projecting $10.42 billion revenue (up 83.4%) but EPS dropping to $0.49 from $0.51
- Options traders price in 11.9% stock movement following results, significantly above the 7.06% average move seen in prior quarters
- Company carries $13 billion order backlog from Q1 but supply chain issues and margin pressure from competition pose challenges
- Wall Street divided with Hold consensus, price targets spanning $26 (Goldman Sachs) to $63 (Northland Securities)
- Last quarter missed badly with $5.02 billion revenue versus $6.48 billion expected as Justice Department probe continues
Super Micro Computer prepares to release Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings after market close February 3. Shares slid 3.6% over the past five days heading into the report.
Super Micro Computer, Inc., SMCI
Wall Street anticipates adjusted earnings per share of $0.49, a decline from $0.51 posted in the same quarter last year. Revenue should climb 83.4% year-over-year to $10.42 billion. Management previously set guidance for Q2 revenue of $10 billion to $11 billion with EPS between $0.46 and $0.54.
The company’s recent execution has been spotty. SMCI missed earnings estimates in five of the past eight quarters.
Monday brought a 2.1% gain to $29.71. Volume reached 26.46 million shares, about 17% below typical levels.
Order Backlog Faces Conversion Hurdles
Q1 FY26 results showed an order backlog exceeding $13 billion, pointing to strong underlying demand. However, supply chain bottlenecks could prevent those orders from turning into revenue. Competitive pressures are also squeezing profit margins.
Goldman Sachs analyst Mike Ng started coverage with a Sell rating and $26 target. He sees SMCI keeping its AI server market leadership but flags margin headwinds from large contracts, increased OEM and ODM competition, and rising input costs.
Last quarter’s results disappointed across the board. EPS hit $0.35 against expectations of $0.46. Revenue totaled $5.02 billion compared to the $6.48 billion forecast, representing a 15.5% year-over-year decline.
Citi analyst Asiya Merchant maintained a Hold rating while cutting her target from $48 to $39. She noted continued capital spending by cloud operators supporting demand for infrastructure components.
Traders Expect Outsized Moves
The options market signals heightened volatility ahead. Traders anticipate an 11.9% swing in either direction following the earnings announcement, according to TipRanks’ Options Tool. That’s well above the 7.06% average post-earnings move over the past four quarters.
The Justice Department’s ongoing investigation into accounting practices adds uncertainty. Hindenburg Research brought these issues to light last year. Any updates during the earnings call could impact the stock.
Analyst sentiment remains mixed. Four have Hold ratings, one rates it Buy, and one recommends Sell.
Northland Securities analyst Nehal Chokshi maintains the most optimistic stance with a Buy rating and $63 price target, suggesting 112% upside potential.
The consensus lands at Hold based on five Buy ratings, six Holds, and two Sells. The average target of $44 implies 48.1% upside from current levels. Over the past year, SMCI gained 10.6% while the S&P 500 outperformed.
The company trades at a $17.74 billion market cap with a P/E ratio of 23.77. Analysts forecast full-year EPS of $1.86. Institutional ownership stands at 84.06% of outstanding shares.
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