Key Takeaways
- Analytics firm Bubblemaps identified six recently established Polymarket accounts that collectively profited nearly $1 million by wagering on US military action against Iran scheduled before February 28, 2026.
- The majority of these accounts received funding and executed trades within a day of the actual strikes, purchasing shares mere hours before Tehran reported explosions.
- One account transformed an approximately $61,000 investment into profits exceeding $493,000.
- Bubblemaps categorized these accounts as “suspected insiders,” while acknowledging that definitive proof of insider trading remains elusive.
- Congressman Ritchie Torres is drafting legislation aimed at prohibiting federal employees from trading prediction market contracts related to policy decisions.
Six cryptocurrency wallets that appeared on the scene just before US military strikes against Iran collectively generated close to $1 million in profits on Polymarket by wagering that American forces would strike Iran before the February 28, 2026 deadline — with the bulk of these trades executed just hours ahead of the initial reports of explosions in Tehran.
Blockchain analytics company Bubblemaps brought attention to these six accounts after detecting a concerning pattern in trade timing. The accounts were established and received their initial funding within a 24-hour window preceding the strikes, and each purchased affirmative positions on the Polymarket question “US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?”
President Donald Trump acknowledged “massive and ongoing” military actions targeting Iran, which the Department of War designated “Operation Epic Fury.” These strikes were executed in coordination with Israeli forces.
The most profitable account from this cluster acquired 560,680 affirmative shares at approximately 10.8 cents per unit, investing around $61,000 total. Upon contract settlement, this position generated profits surpassing $493,000.
Another account operating under the name “Planktonbets” secured $173,907 across seven different prediction markets. This wallet had previously placed smaller unsuccessful wagers on alternative strike dates, indicating multiple efforts to pinpoint the precise timing.
An account identified as “Dicedicedice” placed a solitary wager and realized $119,964 in gains — representing a 400% return on investment. Meanwhile, “Neodbs” recorded the most impressive percentage gain among the flagged accounts at 900%, converting $9,884 into approximately $89,000.
The remaining two accounts, “nothingeverhappens911” and one unidentified wallet, generated $66,436 and $45,556 in profits respectively. All six accounts have subsequently liquidated their entire holdings.
Major Losses Recorded on Same Contract
The profitable trades tell only part of the story. An individual trader using the handle “anoin123” had accumulated more than $2 million by betting against military strikes in preceding months. After the attacks materialized, this account suffered $6.5 million in losses within 24 hours, transitioning from a $2 million gain to a $4.5 million deficit, based on data from blockchain analytics provider Lookonchain.
Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman shared with The Block: “It’s almost impossible to be 100% certain in these cases, but given the size of the bets, the freshly funded wallets, and the timing, it felt convincing enough to share.”
The suite of “US strikes Iran” prediction contracts generated more than $529 million in cumulative trading activity on Polymarket beginning in December 2025. The specific February 28 contract drew approximately $90 million in volume alone.
Recurring Concerns About Information Asymmetry
This incident represents the latest in a series of insider trading allegations facing Polymarket. In January, a newly established wallet invested $32,000 on the potential removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro at 7 cents per share, generating more than $400,000 before official announcements were made.
Earlier this month, Israeli legal authorities charged an IDF reservist and a civilian with utilizing classified military intelligence to place wagers on Polymarket markets connected to Israel’s strike on Iran during the June 2025 Twelve-Day War. The defendants allegedly profited over $150,000 in total.
Mere days before the most recent Iran strike, individuals suspected of possessing inside information earned more than $1 million on a Polymarket contract related to a blockchain investigation involving crypto platform Axiom.
US Representative Ritchie Torres has put forward the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, legislation designed to prevent federal officials from trading prediction market contracts connected to government policy using confidential information. Competing platform Kalshi has voiced support for the proposed bill, with its CEO noting that regulated prediction markets are prohibited from operating war-related markets.
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