TLDR
- Tempus AI launched HRD-RNA, a 1,660-gene RNA-based algorithm to identify cancer patients who may respond to platinum-based chemotherapy or PARP inhibitors
- The algorithm offers a real-time tumor assessment, unlike DNA-based tests that detect lingering “genomic scars”
- Validation data shows HRD-RNA positive metastatic pancreatic cancer patients had reduced mortality with first-line platinum-based treatment
- Robert W. Baird upgraded TEM to Strong Buy; consensus is “Moderate Buy” with a $84.64 price target
- CEO Eric Lefkofsky sold $10.9M in shares in January; insiders have sold ~$48.6M worth of stock in the past 90 days
Tempus AI shares rose nearly 9% Tuesday after the company announced a new AI-driven RNA test designed to identify which cancer patients are likely to respond to certain treatments.
The new algorithm, called HRD-RNA, uses a 1,660-gene logistic regression model to detect Homologous Recombination Deficiency (HRD) in tumor cells. It looks at gene expression patterns rather than structural DNA damage, which is how most existing tests work.
The company says this gives a more dynamic, real-time picture of tumor biology. Traditional DNA tests can pick up “genomic scars” that stick around even after a tumor has developed drug resistance, which can lead to misleading results.
HRD-RNA aims to identify patients who could benefit from platinum-based chemotherapy or PARP inhibitors — two established cancer treatment approaches.
A validation study showed that metastatic pancreatic cancer patients flagged as HRD-RNA positive had lower mortality risk when treated with first-line platinum-based regimens compared to non-platinum therapies. Full data from the study is expected to be published later in 2026.
“By looking at the transcriptome, we can identify a functional HRD status that is more dynamic than what can be seen in the genome alone,” said Halla Nimeiri, Chief Development Officer at Tempus.
For now, the algorithm is available for research use only. Clinical availability is expected later this year.
Analyst Upgrades and Price Targets
The product launch comes alongside a fresh upgrade from Robert W. Baird, which raised its rating on TEM to Strong Buy on Tuesday.
Overall analyst sentiment leans positive. The current consensus is “Moderate Buy” with a price target of $84.64 — well above where the stock is trading. That includes one Strong Buy, six Buys, six Holds, and one Sell.
Morgan Stanley has an Overweight rating with an $85 price target. Needham has a Buy rating and a $100 target. Canaccord and Piper Sandler are more cautious, with Buy and Neutral ratings respectively, both with $80 targets.
Shares opened at $52.56 Tuesday, well below the 50-day moving average of $63.26 and the 200-day moving average of $73.60. The stock has a 52-week range of $36.22 to $104.32.
Insider Selling Raises Eyebrows
Despite the positive news, insider activity has been heavy on the sell side. CEO Eric Lefkofsky sold 166,250 shares on January 28 at an average price of $65.56, totaling about $10.9 million.
Over the past 90 days, insiders have sold a combined 710,438 shares worth approximately $48.6 million. Insiders still hold about 26.27% of the company.
On the institutional side, several funds have been adding to positions. Mirae Asset Global Investments increased its stake by 1,459.8% in Q3, while Renaissance Capital grew its position by 26.9%.
Tempus reported approximately $316 million in application revenue for full-year 2025, up 31% year-over-year. Its Insights segment grew 38%. The company also recently partnered with NYU Langone Health to advance cancer care through molecular profiling.
Tempus is scheduled to report quarterly earnings on February 24.
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