Key Takeaways
- Tesla’s share price has declined approximately 20% since the start of 2026, experiencing six consecutive weeks of losses through March 30.
- Analysts anticipate Q1 2026 vehicle deliveries near 366,000 units, representing growth from last year’s 337,000.
- Elon Musk announced that volume production of the Cybercab robotaxi will commence in April.
- The company anticipates receiving supervised full self-driving approval in the Netherlands during April, potentially unlocking European market expansion.
- First quarter earnings estimates sit at 41 cents per share, marking improvement from the 27 cents reported in Q1 2025.
Tesla (TSLA) shares opened Monday’s trading session at $364.42, gaining 0.7% despite carrying a year-to-date decline of approximately 20%.
The electric vehicle manufacturer’s shares managed a modest Monday morning rally following a challenging period marked by six straight weeks of losses. Friday’s session saw shares retreat 2.8%, capping off another negative week with a 1.7% decline that contributed to a cumulative 13% drop across the six-week downturn.
Interestingly, this extended slide commenced during the same week Tesla delivered fourth quarter 2025 results that exceeded Wall Street forecasts. The automaker achieved 50 cents in earnings per share versus the 43-cent consensus estimate. However, this still represented a significant retreat from Q4 2024’s 73 cents per share, leaving market participants hungry for evidence of renewed expansion.
That evidence could materialize Thursday when Tesla releases its first quarter 2026 delivery figures just before the Good Friday market closure.
The Street’s consensus hovers around 366,000 vehicle deliveries for the period, up from 337,000 during the comparable quarter last year. UBS disrupted expectations in mid-March by issuing a forecast of merely 345,000 units — substantially beneath the prevailing analyst consensus near 365,000. Meanwhile, betting markets on Polymarket reflect 62% probability of deliveries landing below 350,000 vehicles.
Tesla’s Q1 2025 delivery count reached 336,681 units. A decisive beat of that benchmark would indicate the sales deceleration experienced during last year’s first half — blamed on the Model Y refresh transition — has finally concluded.
Cybercab Manufacturing Timeline Approaches
Beyond quarterly delivery metrics, market watchers are monitoring progress on Tesla’s autonomous taxi initiative. Musk has publicly committed to launching volume manufacturing of the Cybercab, Tesla’s purpose-built robotaxi, beginning this April.
The complication: Tesla currently lacks regulatory clearances for the Cybercab. Ramping production without these authorizations creates risk of capital and inventory being locked up unproductively. Nonetheless, initiating manufacturing reduces execution uncertainty and maintains investor attention on the robotaxi opportunity.
Tesla activated a robotaxi service in Austin, Texas last June and projects expansion into additional metropolitan areas during 2026’s first half. Las Vegas has emerged as a probable next deployment location.
European FSD Authorization in Sight
Tesla also expects to secure supervised full self-driving system approval in the Netherlands this April. The Netherlands Vehicle Authority has verified both parties are “currently completing the final steps of the assessment process.”
Dutch approval could establish a pathway toward expanded EU market access — whether through comprehensive bloc-wide authorization or sequential individual country approvals. Tesla has experienced market share erosion throughout Europe, and introducing FSD capabilities there could strengthen the competitive positioning of its product lineup across that region.
Beyond delivery results, Cybercab developments, and European FSD progress, Tesla is anticipated to reveal the third-generation iteration of its Optimus humanoid robot shortly and may finally showcase the repeatedly postponed Roadster.
Wall Street projects first quarter 2026 earnings at 41 cents per share, up from 27 cents during Q1 2025. Investors will probably need to wait for the earnings conference call — scheduled approximately three weeks following the delivery announcement — to receive comprehensive updates on robotaxi expansion plans and Optimus development timelines.
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