TLDR
- Tesla stock fell 2.7% Thursday to $417.50, breaking a four-day winning streak, with shares down another 0.7% in Friday premarket trading
- The stock has dropped 3.3% since reporting Q4 earnings on January 20, despite beating Wall Street estimates on revenue and profit
- Tesla plans to expand its robo-taxi service to nine cities in the first half of 2026 from current operations in Austin
- Capital spending will exceed $20 billion in 2026, more than double last year’s amount, to fund AI and robotics initiatives
- Shares trade at a forward P/E ratio near 205 as investors wait for proof of execution on autonomous vehicle and AI projects
Tesla stock ended a four-day winning streak Thursday, falling 2.7% to $417.50. Shares continued sliding in Friday premarket trading, down 0.7% to $414.07.
The decline wasn’t driven by company-specific news. Broader market weakness hit tech stocks hard. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2% Thursday as AI disruption fears spread.
Tesla shares now sit 3.3% below where they traded after fourth-quarter earnings on January 20. The company beat analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings. But investors haven’t rewarded the stock with sustained gains.
Waiting for AI Execution
The muted response suggests shareholders want more than quarterly beats. They’re waiting for tangible progress on Tesla’s AI initiatives.
CEO Elon Musk outlined plans to expand the company’s robo-taxi service to nine cities during the first half of 2026. The service currently operates in Austin, Texas. Testing is underway in San Francisco.
Tesla aims to start CyberCab production in April. Musk stated he expects the company to eventually produce more CyberCabs than all other vehicles combined.
The company is winding down Model S sedan and Model X SUV production in coming months. That manufacturing space will shift to Optimus, Tesla’s autonomous robot. Musk wants to produce 1 million Optimus units annually.
Capital Spending Surge
Capital expenditures will top $20 billion in 2026. That’s more than double the 2025 level. Funds will support battery technology, CyberCab production, the Robotaxi system, and AI development.
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving platform shifts to a subscription-only model this quarter. The move could create recurring revenue if adoption proves strong.
Fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries fell 16% year-over-year to 495,570 units. The drop raised concerns since Tesla remains primarily an automobile manufacturer.
Despite recent weakness, Tesla stock is up 24% over the past 12 months. Shares gained 1.4% for the week heading into Friday.
Friday the 13th History
Friday the 13th has historically favored Tesla stock. The company has experienced 27 Friday the 13ths since going public in 2010. Shares rose on 15 of those days, a 56% success rate.
That beats the stock’s typical performance. Tesla rises about 52% of the time on regular trading days. Average price movement on Friday the 13th is 2.3%, slightly below the usual 2.5% daily swing.
The stock trades at a forward P/E ratio near 205. Critics argue valuations remain stretched for unproven products like Optimus and CyberCab.
Competition in the EV market continues intensifying. Traditional automakers are expanding electric vehicle offerings. Tesla’s pivot toward AI and robotics reflects these competitive pressures.
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving subscriptions face challenges in a market where consumers already manage multiple subscription services.
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