TLDRs;
- Tesla Q3 Cybertruck sales fall 63%, dragging TSLA stock down 2.55% in market trading.
- Total 2025 Cybertruck deliveries now projected at 20,000 units, far below Musk’s 250,000 target.
- Federal EV tax credit cutoff likely contributed to the sharp decline in Q3 sales.
- Rivian and Ford benefit as Tesla loses ground in the electric truck market.
Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock dropped 2.55% on Tuesday as new data revealed a dramatic 63% year-on-year decline in Cybertruck sales for Q3 2025.
According to Kelley Blue Book, Tesla sold just 5,385 units of the long-awaited electric pickup during the quarter, signaling a steep fall from the previous year.
This decline brings total Cybertruck sales for the year to just over 16,000 units, far short of CEO Elon Musk’s earlier projections of 250,000 vehicles annually. Analysts estimate that Tesla will deliver around 20,000 Cybertrucks in 2025, a significant reduction compared to approximately 50,000 units delivered in 2024.
Some unsold Cybertrucks have reportedly been repurposed for internal use at Musk’s other ventures, including SpaceX and xAI. This move highlights both the slow consumer uptake and Tesla’s willingness to utilize inventory internally.
Tax Credits Influence Buyer Behavior
Industry experts point to federal electric vehicle (EV) tax incentives as a major factor in the Cybertruck’s Q3 slump. The $7,500 consumer tax credit for eligible EVs ended for vehicles purchased after September 30, 2025, prompting many buyers to rush their orders earlier in the year.
Eligibility for these credits varies depending on assembly location, vehicle model, and other IRS requirements, creating complexity for buyers. Rivian’s R1T and Ford’s F-150 Lightning, which maintained favorable credit eligibility, posted gains of 13% and 39.7% in the same period, respectively, demonstrating how policy can sway market share in the electric truck segment.
The commercial clean vehicle credit under Section 45W, which can reach $40,000 for vehicles over 14,000 pounds, also allows businesses to pass savings through leases, helping smaller companies afford EV trucks despite the consumer credit expiration.
Market Reaction and Stock Impact
Tesla’s stock reaction reflects investor concerns over production and sales performance. TSLA shares opened lower on Tuesday, mirroring the Q3 sales data, and briefly dropped 2.55% during morning trading.
Analysts caution that if Cybertruck sales continue to underperform, it could affect Tesla’s broader revenue and margin expectations, especially given the high-profile nature of the vehicle in the company’s lineup.
While Tesla’s overall EV business remains robust, the Cybertruck has become a focal point for investors and analysts alike, who are closely monitoring production, delivery, and demand trends. The sharp sales decline raises questions about whether the vehicle’s unique design and delayed rollout are affecting consumer adoption.
Competitors Gain as Tesla Stumbles
As Tesla struggles, competitors are capitalizing on the opportunity. Ford and Rivian have seen strong growth in their electric truck lines, benefiting from clearer tax credit eligibility and steady production schedules.
Market watchers note that Tesla’s inability to capture the anticipated consumer surge may give rivals a window to strengthen their foothold in the EV truck market.
Looking ahead, Tesla faces a challenging landscape in 2025. While federal incentives, leasing strategies, and internal fleet use may mitigate some losses, the Cybertruck’s underperformance remains a critical variable for both the company and its stock. Investors will continue to track TSLA closely as the year progresses, weighing delivery numbers against broader market trends in electric vehicles.
