TLDR
- Tesla reports Q3 deliveries Thursday with Wall Street expecting 447,000 vehicles (3% decline)
- Stock jumped 31% in September on AI and robotaxi excitement
- Federal EV tax credit expires September 30, likely boosting Q3 sales
- Analyst Troy Teslike predicts potential beat with 472,000 deliveries
- First half 2025 deliveries fell 13% to 721,000 vehicles
Tesla will announce third-quarter delivery numbers on Thursday. Wall Street analysts expect approximately 447,000 vehicle deliveries for the period.
This forecast represents a 3% decrease from the 463,000 cars Tesla delivered in Q3 2024. However, some industry watchers believe the electric vehicle maker could exceed these conservative estimates.
Independent Tesla researcher Troy Teslike projects deliveries closer to 472,000 vehicles. This would represent a 2% increase compared to last year’s third quarter.
Goldman Sachs anticipates 455,000 unit deliveries for Q3. Deutsche Bank forecasts 461,500 vehicles, essentially flat year-over-year but up 20% sequentially.
Any positive growth would mark improvement from Tesla’s challenging first half. The company delivered 721,000 cars in the first six months of 2025, declining 13% year-over-year.
Stock Performance Driven by AI Ambitions
Tesla stock has soared 31% during September alone. Investors increasingly focus on artificial intelligence opportunities rather than traditional automotive sales metrics.
The company launched AI-powered robotaxi services in Austin, Texas this June. Tesla plans rapid nationwide expansion of this autonomous vehicle program.
Management also announced plans to begin selling AI-enabled humanoid robots in significant quantities starting 2026. These technological developments have prompted multiple analyst price target increases.
RBC, Baird, and Wedbush recently raised their Tesla stock price targets. The average Wall Street price target now sits around $343 per share, climbing $30 since August’s end.
Tesla shares gained over 2% in the past five trading sessions. Pre-market trading showed additional 0.8% gains on Monday.
Tax Credit Expiration Creates Sales Boost
The $7,500 federal EV purchase tax credit expires September 30. This deadline likely accelerated consumer purchases during the third quarter.
President Trump’s tax legislation eliminated this incentive as part of broader spending reforms. Many buyers rushed to secure vehicles before losing this financial benefit.
Tesla’s refreshed Model Y also contributed to potential delivery strength. The updated variant features enhanced design elements, improved comfort features, and advanced technology integration.
The company completed major factory retooling earlier in 2025. These production line improvements specifically targeted new Model Y manufacturing after early-year production challenges.
CEO Elon Musk’s reduced political commentary may have eased some consumer concerns. His previous controversial statements had impacted Tesla sales in certain demographic segments.
Wall Street maintains mixed sentiment on Tesla stock. Current analyst ratings include 15 Buy recommendations, 12 Hold ratings, and 8 Sell ratings over the past three months.
The company remains profitable despite declining automotive sales volumes. Tesla continues investing billions in Nvidia chips for AI development projects.
Vehicle sales are projected to fall for the second consecutive year. However, artificial intelligence initiatives represent Tesla’s primary long-term growth strategy beyond traditional car manufacturing.
Six analysts reiterated Buy ratings last week, with four raising price targets. The consensus Hold rating reflects uncertainty about near-term delivery performance versus long-term AI potential.
