TLDR
- Tesla reports Q3 earnings Wednesday with Wall Street expecting 55 cents per share on $27.2 billion revenue
- Record 497,099 vehicle deliveries in Q3 exceeded analyst projections by 54,000 units
- Stock up 103% over past year despite lower 2025 sales volumes compared to 2024
- Options traders pricing in 7% move in either direction following earnings release
- Investor focus on robotaxi updates, new lower-priced models, and Optimus robot progress
Tesla stock fell 0.8% to $443.73 in early Tuesday trading ahead of Wednesday’s third-quarter earnings report. The electric vehicle manufacturer is positioned to beat analyst estimates, though market reaction remains uncertain.
Wall Street analysts forecast earnings per share of 55 cents on $27.2 billion in revenue. These projections appear conservative given Tesla’s actual third-quarter performance.
The company delivered 497,099 vehicles during the quarter. That figure surpassed analyst expectations by approximately 54,000 units, representing roughly $2.4 billion in additional sales.
Despite the delivery beat, Wall Street’s automotive sales estimate stands at $20.6 billion. This number has increased only $600 million since the delivery report release, suggesting analysts haven’t fully adjusted their models.
Current Q3 automotive estimates are merely $600 million higher than the $20 billion Tesla generated in Q3 2024. The company sold 34,209 fewer vehicles during that period.
Energy Storage and Future Products
Tesla deployed 12.5 gigawatt-hours of energy storage products in Q3. This represents a jump from 6.9 gigawatt-hours in the same quarter last year.
Beyond the numbers, CEO Elon Musk’s commentary will drive investor sentiment. Updates on EV demand and robotaxi expansion are top priorities.
The company introduced lower-priced “Standard” versions of Model 3 and Y vehicles in October. Order data for these models would provide critical demand signals at more accessible price points.
Tesla’s robotaxi service launched in Austin, Texas in June. Expansion plans to additional cities and timeline for removing safety monitors remain key investor questions.
The federal $7,500 EV purchase tax credit has expired, making electric vehicles more expensive. Musk previously warned about coming “rough quarters” ahead.
AI Drives Stock Performance
Tesla stock has gained 11% year-to-date and 103% over the past 12 months. These gains occurred despite lower 2025 sales volumes compared to 2024.
Artificial intelligence opportunities have captured investor attention. Tesla leverages AI for autonomous driving development and humanoid robot training.
The company plans to begin selling substantial quantities of its Optimus robot in 2026. “If Musk can convince investors that future product road maps are still on track, investors will reward him,” said Zacks Investment Research stock strategist Andrew Rocco.
Options markets indicate expected volatility of approximately 6% following the earnings announcement. Tesla shares have moved an average of 10% after the past four quarterly reports.
A 7% move from last week’s close would place shares at either $470 or $409. The upper target would mark Tesla’s second-highest closing price on record.
Last year’s Q3 report triggered a 22% stock surge. Tesla posted 72-cent earnings per share versus the 59-cent estimate.
Analyst Views and Market Outlook
Thirteen analysts tracked by Visible Alpha maintain current ratings on Tesla stock. Three recommend selling, four assign hold ratings, and six rate it a buy.
The average analyst price target sits at $363, approximately 17% below Friday’s closing price.
Tesla stock started 2025 near all-time highs but declined during Q1 due to tariffs on vehicles, aluminum, and steel. Public response to Musk’s political involvement also weighed on shares.
The stock recovered after Musk’s dispute with President Trump and his commitment to focus on business operations. Tesla releases Q3 earnings Wednesday after market close.
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