TLDR
- Tesla shares gained 1.7% Thursday to $454.48, extending Wednesday’s 4.1% rally fueled by robotics enthusiasm
- RBC projects $400 billion in Optimus sales by 2050, while Deutsche Bank forecasts $31 billion by 2035
- Musk’s pay package requires one million cumulative robot sales by 2035, with external sales targeted for 2026
- Analysts estimate Optimus could cost $20,000 per unit with 50% margins, adding $111-$640 per share to valuation
- Tesla launched Model 3 Standard in Europe at €37,970 to compete with affordable Chinese and European EVs
Tesla stock advanced 1.7% Thursday to close at $454.48. The move extended Wednesday’s 4.1% surge driven by growing optimism around the company’s robotics program.
Thursday’s close represents only the 13th time Tesla has finished above $450. The last occurrence was approximately one month earlier on November 5.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy sparked the rally with research suggesting potential government support for robotics. His note referenced a possible 2026 executive order focused on humanoid robots.
Levy described robotics as an emerging competitive front with China. He said companies are pursuing federal funding and tax breaks for automation initiatives.
The analysis renewed focus on Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot. Musk expects to begin external sales in 2026.
The product remains unavailable with no confirmed pricing or cost data. Demand projections don’t exist yet either.
Revenue Models Range From Conservative to Aggressive
Analysts are building financial models despite the uncertainty. Baird’s Ben Kallo based his estimates on Musk’s reference to $20,000 unit costs with 50% gross margins.
Kallo upgraded Tesla to Buy in September with a $548 target. He acknowledged multiple growth drivers but didn’t forecast specific robot volumes.
RBC’s Tom Narayan projects dramatically higher numbers. His model assumes $400 billion in robot revenue by 2050 valued at 10 times sales.
Discounting that figure to present value yields approximately $640 billion. That accounts for over one-third of his total Tesla valuation.
Narayan’s $500 price target values Tesla above $1.5 trillion. He maintains a Buy rating on the shares.
Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu uses a nearer-term framework. He forecasts 1.25 million units sold in 2035 at $25,000 each, generating $31 billion in sales.
Yu applies a 30 times revenue multiple before discounting. His calculation adds $111 per share from robotics alone.
He rates Tesla Buy with a $470 target. All three analysts covering the robot opportunity maintain Buy ratings.
Pay Package Links Musk to Robot Goals
The forecasts remain theoretical since commercially viable humanoid robots haven’t reached market. Musk faces direct financial motivation to deliver results.
His recently approved trillion-dollar compensation plan includes robot milestones. Tesla needs one million cumulative robot sales by 2035 for him to hit that benchmark.
Optimistic analyst projections suggest that target would be achievable. Some models show multiples of one million units by that date.
Budget Model Targets European Market
Tesla debuted the Model 3 Standard in Europe on Friday. The entry-level version addresses intensifying competition from lower-priced rivals.
German pricing starts at €37,970 while Swedish customers pay 449,990 crowns. Those figures translate to roughly $44,256 and $47,849.
The U.S. market received the same variant earlier at $36,990. Tesla rolled out a budget Model Y in Europe during October.
Chinese manufacturers and European brands are launching cheaper electric vehicles. Tesla is countering with reduced pricing across markets.
Premarket trading Friday showed shares up 0.22% at $455.32.
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