TLDR
- Federal Reserve convenes Wednesday with expectations to maintain rates between 3.5%–3.75%; Powell’s remarks will be crucial
- Crude oil surged past $100/barrel following Iran conflict that has shut down the Strait of Hormuz
- Micron delivers quarterly results Wednesday following a remarkable 300%+ stock surge over 12 months
- Major earnings releases include FedEx, Dollar Tree, Alibaba, and multiple retail giants
- Goldman Sachs projects Brent crude averaging $93/barrel in Q4 if Strait blockade persists for two months
Equity markets extended their losing streak to three consecutive weeks as escalating conflict in Iran drove crude prices to heights unseen since the 2022 energy shock. The S&P 500 declined 1.6% for the period. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surrendered 2%. The Nasdaq Composite retreated 1.3%.
Investors now face a calendar-heavy week featuring a Federal Reserve policy announcement, multiple high-profile earnings releases, and Nvidia’s flagship developer conference.
The Federal Open Market Committee convenes Wednesday for its latest monetary policy deliberation. With the benchmark rate currently positioned at 3.5% to 3.75%, market participants are nearly unanimous in expecting no change to current policy.
Chairman Jerome Powell’s post-decision press conference will likely command more attention than the rate announcement itself.
Powell faces the challenge of addressing internal disagreements within the central bank. One faction advocates for additional rate reductions citing weakening employment data. Another camp expresses concern about potential inflation acceleration driven by energy price spikes.
This marks Powell’s penultimate scheduled press conference, as his chairmanship concludes in May.
Oil and the Strait of Hormuz
The Iranian conflict has now entered its third week with hostilities showing no signs of abatement. The Strait of Hormuz — a narrow 21-mile passage facilitating approximately 14 million barrels of daily crude shipments — remains effectively shut down.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps has declared it will prevent “a liter of oil” from transiting the strategic waterway.
Crude prices momentarily breached the $100 per barrel threshold last Sunday, marking the first time since Russia’s 2022 Ukraine offensive. After retreating to the $80 range, prices rebounded following drone attacks on critical petroleum facilities and production curtailment announcements from Gulf nations.
Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that a 60-day closure of the Strait would push fourth quarter Brent crude to an average of $93 per barrel. They forecast US West Texas Intermediate at $89 during the same period.
Wednesday’s economic calendar also features February’s Producer Price Index release. The January data revealed wholesale inflation exceeding forecasts.
Micron and the Earnings Lineup
Micron Technology unveils quarterly results Wednesday. The semiconductor memory specialist has witnessed extraordinary share price appreciation exceeding 300% over twelve months, fueled by robust AI infrastructure demand. Its previous quarterly report revealed 60% revenue growth year-over-year and earnings that topped Wall Street projections.
FedEx delivers its earnings Thursday. The logistics giant’s shares have climbed nearly 25% year-to-date. Analysts scrutinize FedEx’s shipping metrics as economic health indicators.
Dollar Tree also announces results, offering perspective on consumer spending patterns. Management previously characterized shoppers as financially “stretched.”
Nuclear energy firm Oklo presents Tuesday. The company recently finalized an agreement with Meta to provide electricity for the tech giant’s data center operations.
Alibaba reports Thursday amid plans to increase AI infrastructure investment. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer Xpeng releases results Friday.
Nvidia’s GTC 2026 conference launches Monday featuring a keynote address from CEO Jensen Huang.
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