TLDR
- The U.S. Supreme Court may soon rule on Trump’s IEEPA-based tariffs, with decisions expected Friday.
- Refunds could exceed $133.5 billion, covering duties imposed since February 2025, per CBP data.
- The largest tariff category is $81.74B from “reciprocal” duties on goods from all countries.
- Prediction markets dropped Trump’s chances of prevailing to 23–30% following oral arguments in November.
- The court has not confirmed if it will decide on refunds or defer the matter to lower courts or agencies.
President Donald Trump’s tariff policy may face a reversal if the U.S. Supreme Court rules against the use of IEEPA. According to a report by Reuters, the potential refund amount exceeds $133.5 billion in duties assessed since February 2025, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection. The court has heard arguments and may issue decisions this Friday, but case details remain undisclosed.
Tariffs Imposed Under IEEPA Generate Legal Uncertainty
The Trump administration used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs on various goods since early 2025. U.S. Customs data shows the duties assessed through December 14 cover imports from China, Mexico, Canada, and others.
The largest share came from “reciprocal” duties applied to goods from all countries, totaling $81.74 billion since April 5. China and Hong Kong-related fentanyl tariffs reached $37.87 billion, while Mexico and Canada followed with $6.48 billion and $2.42 billion, respectively. Punitive tariffs targeted Brazil, India, and Japan due to trade disagreements or deals.
If the Supreme Court invalidates the IEEPA-based tariffs, CBP may face legal or administrative pressure to issue refunds. However, it remains unclear whether the court will address refunds directly or leave the matter unresolved. The decision could be sent to lower courts or deferred to the federal government.
Market Odds Shift as Court Decision Nears
Online prediction platforms have adjusted probabilities following oral arguments held in November. Kalshi currently assigns Trump a 30% chance of prevailing, while Polymarket places the odds at 23%. Both platforms showed higher expectations near 40%.
Trump recently claimed the U.S. had collected or would collect $600 billion in tariffs, which contradicts Treasury data. Official records show total customs duties peaked at $195 billion in fiscal year 2025. Monthly tariff collections have since remained in the $30 billion range.
Fentanyl-specific tariffs began in February against Chinese goods, then expanded to Canadian and Mexican goods by March. The “reciprocal” duties, ranging from 10% to 50%, were implemented in April and later adjusted. Brazilian and Indian goods received additional tariffs in August, while Japan’s modified duties followed in early August.
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