TLDR
- United Airlines posted Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.78, beating analyst estimates of $2.66, while revenue of $15.2 billion narrowly missed the $15.28 billion forecast.
- Q4 guidance impressed with projected EPS of $3.00-$3.50, crushing Wall Street’s $2.82 estimate and forecasting record quarterly revenue.
- Premium cabin revenue climbed 6% year-over-year as United’s focus on high-end travelers continues paying off.
- Newark Airport operational problems from earlier in 2025 have been resolved, with on-time performance now matching other NYC airports.
- Stock dipped 2% in premarket trading, but retail investors maintained extremely bullish sentiment on the results.
United Airlines delivered third quarter results that exceeded earnings expectations while revenue came in slightly below forecasts. The carrier reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.78 versus the $2.66 Wall Street consensus.
Operating revenue totaled $15.2 billion. That missed the $15.28 billion estimate by a small margin but still marked a 3% increase from last year.
Shares fell nearly 2% in premarket trading Thursday. However, retail traders remained upbeat about the report, with sentiment on Stocktwits showing extremely bullish readings.
United Airlines Holdings, Inc., UAL
Passenger revenue per available seat mile hit $73.77 billion, topping the $72.71 billion expectation. Available seat miles reached 87.42 billion, above the projected 86.51 billion.
Premium Travelers Drive Growth
Premium cabin revenue grew 6% compared to the prior year. Basic economy revenue increased 4%, while loyalty program revenue surged 9%.
The results echo Delta Air Lines’ recent report showing 9% premium revenue growth. Corporate and wealthy travelers are spending more on expensive front-of-plane seats.
United has invested heavily in customer experience improvements. The airline is adding seatback screens, upgrading its mobile app, and installing Starlink Wi-Fi fleet-wide by 2027.
CEO Scott Kirby credited these investments with building customer loyalty. He said the strategy helped United navigate economic uncertainty through the first three quarters.
Cargo revenue rose 3% year-over-year. The company announced new transatlantic routes to Italy, Spain, and Croatia last week as it expands capacity faster than competitors.
Record Q4 Revenue Expected
United’s fourth quarter guidance exceeded expectations by a wide margin. The airline projects adjusted EPS between $3.00 and $3.50, well above the $2.82 analyst estimate.
The company expects Q4 to produce the highest total operating revenue for any single quarter in its history. Kirby pointed to strengthening economic conditions and rising demand.
Earlier this year United struggled with operational issues at Newark Liberty Airport in New Jersey. Staffing shortages and air traffic control problems caused major delays at the hub.
By September, Newark’s on-time performance improved to match LaGuardia and JFK airports. Customers had been avoiding Newark, creating capacity utilization problems for the airline.
Industry Faces Broader Challenges
The airline industry is monitoring potential air traffic control staffing issues tied to government shutdown concerns. Nashville International Airport experienced delays last week due to controller shortages.
Burbank Airport operated without controllers for several hours, forcing San Diego’s facility to handle rerouted flights. Delta CEO Ed Bastian said current staffing levels aren’t affecting operations but warned a prolonged shutdown could create problems.
Analyst Jack Woodruff from Candlestick Capital Management predicts United’s stock could grow 2.5 to 3.5 times over the next 18 to 24 months. He believes the market is undervaluing structural changes in the air travel sector.
United stock has gained 7% year-to-date. The company holds its earnings call Thursday to provide additional details on quarterly performance and full-year targets.
