TLDR
- UnitedHealth Group announces Q4 2025 results January 27 with analysts forecasting $2.10 EPS (down 69%) and $113.8 billion revenue (up 13%)
- Shares have fallen 34% over 12 months due to Medicare Advantage cost challenges and ongoing DOJ billing investigation
- Senate investigation revealed company used aggressive tactics to maximize Medicare Advantage federal payments through risk adjustment
- Wall Street consensus shows Strong Buy with 16 Buy ratings and average price target of $399.50 suggesting 12% gains
- Options traders expect 5.54% price movement following earnings as healthcare reporting season begins
UnitedHealth Group releases fourth-quarter 2025 earnings before market open on January 27. The health insurance provider faces its earnings moment after a year of pressure on share prices.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, UNH
The stock has tumbled 34% over the past year. Rising medical costs in Medicare Advantage plans have squeezed profitability. A Justice Department probe into the company’s billing methods continues to weigh on investor sentiment.
Wall Street analysts expect $2.10 per share in earnings for the quarter. That figure represents a 69% year-over-year decline. Revenue projections sit at $113.8 billion, marking 13% growth from last year’s comparable period.
The company’s earnings history shows strength. UnitedHealth topped EPS forecasts in seven out of nine recent quarters. The previous quarter delivered $113.2 billion in revenue, hitting analyst estimates with 12.2% annual growth. Membership remained flat at 54.08 million customers.
Senate Report Creates Headwinds
New challenges emerged January 12 when Senate investigators released their findings. The probe examined roughly 50,000 internal company records over an extended period.
The investigation centered on Medicare Advantage payment structures. Insurers receive fixed government payments for each plan member, with higher amounts for patients who have complex medical conditions. This risk adjustment framework determines final reimbursement rates.
Senate investigators determined the company maximized these payments beyond their intended purpose. The findings described the risk adjustment system being treated as revenue generation rather than patient care support.
Analysts Maintain Optimism
Bernstein’s Lance Wilkes keeps his Outperform rating with a $444 price objective. He selected UnitedHealth as his preferred healthcare investment for 2026. Wilkes anticipates margin expansion as management sheds unprofitable operations.
His target price indicates approximately 25% upside from today’s levels. Wilkes characterizes the turnaround as requiring time and patience from shareholders.
Morgan Stanley analyst Erin Wright holds a Buy recommendation with a $409 target, trimmed from $411 previously. Her forecast still projects 14% appreciation potential.
Earnings Reaction Forecasts
The options market reveals trader expectations around the announcement. Implied volatility calculations point to a 5.54% move up or down following results.
Consensus data from TipRanks compiles 16 Buy ratings against 3 Hold ratings. No analysts recommend selling. The average target of $399.50 implies 12.14% upside from current trading prices.
Coverage estimates have held relatively steady through the past month. Analysts appear confident in their projections entering the report.
UnitedHealth reports first among healthcare providers this season. The healthcare segment has posted 2.9% gains over the last 30 days across major players. UnitedHealth outperformed with a 7.9% advance in the same timeframe.
Shares currently trade at $355.06 compared to the $393.77 average analyst target. The company missed Wall Street revenue expectations in five of the last eight quarters.
Revenue growth has decelerated from previous reporting periods. Analysts project revenues will increase 12.7% this quarter, an improvement from the 6.8% growth rate posted in last year’s fourth quarter.
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