TLDR
- American equity futures (Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq) posted gains Friday morning following a sharp Thursday decline, benefiting from a modest pullback in crude prices.
- Brent crude momentarily exceeded $100 per barrel—the first time since August 2022—before declining to approximately $99.
- The ongoing Iran crisis, extending into its second week, has triggered what analysts characterize as the most severe oil supply disruption ever recorded, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed.
- Bitcoin climbed beyond $70,000, with market observers pointing to a Trump social media message as a potential catalyst for the cryptocurrency’s advance.
- Market participants now assign a 47% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current rates throughout 2026, a dramatic increase from 3% four weeks earlier, reflecting heightened inflation concerns.
American equity futures advanced Friday morning following Thursday’s selloff that pushed all three primary benchmarks to their 2026 lows. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 futures each registered increases ranging from 0.3% to 0.4% during premarket activity.
The upward movement came after a temporary rally sparked by an Axios report indicating President Donald Trump informed international leaders during a Wednesday virtual conference that Iran is “about to surrender.” The White House has yet to provide official confirmation of these statements.
Contrary to such optimism, Iran’s newly appointed supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, pledged Thursday to continue military operations. He additionally confirmed Iran’s intention to maintain the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway represents one of the planet’s most vital petroleum transport corridors.
The Iran-Israel confrontation reached its second week Friday. Israeli forces conducted additional strikes on Tehran, while Iran has been implicated in missile attacks targeting Dubai and Turkey. US military authorities also verified that four service members perished in a refueling aircraft accident.
Oil Pulls Back But Stays Elevated
Oil prices declined modestly Friday following a turbulent trading week. West Texas Intermediate crude decreased roughly 2% to settle below $94 per barrel. Brent crude, the global pricing standard, retreated beneath $100 after Thursday’s close marked its first settlement above that threshold since August 2022.
Market analysts have characterized the current petroleum supply interruption as unprecedented in scale. Responding to the crisis, the United States authorized a second exemption permitting acquisitions of sanctioned Russian crude to alleviate supply constraints.
India has initiated intensive negotiations with Iran to secure passage for a minimum of 23 oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, The Wall Street Journal reported, referencing Indian government sources. Initial vessel crossings may occur as soon as this weekend.
Fed Rate Cut Bets Fall Sharply
The petroleum-fueled inflation anxiety is dramatically altering Federal Reserve policy forecasts. Market participants now estimate a 47% likelihood the Fed will implement zero interest rate reductions throughout 2026, according to CME FedWatch metrics. This represents a substantial jump from merely 3% one month prior.
The 10-year Treasury yield registered 4.28% Friday morning. The US dollar index climbed 0.3%, reaching a 3.5-month peak.
Market attention focused on the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, scheduled for Friday morning release. Fourth quarter GDP figures and the January JOLTS employment openings report were also expected.
Bitcoin rocketed past $70,000 in early Friday trading. Some market analysts attributed the movement partially to a social media posting by former President Trump. Gold headed toward a weekly decline, pressured by dollar strength.
Brent crude recorded its most significant single-session increase since May 2020 on Thursday, highlighting the extraordinary velocity of this week’s market movements.
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