TLDR
- USDC commands 64% of adjusted transaction volume market share, surpassing USDT in 2026 year-to-date metrics per Mizuho
- First volume leadership for USDC since 2019, breaking Tether’s extended reign
- Market capitalization still favors USDT at $184 billion compared to USDC’s $79 billion
- Circle stock price target elevated from $100 to $120 by Mizuho Securities
- Analysts contend transaction volume will determine ultimate stablecoin market leadership over market cap metrics
Japanese investment banking firm Mizuho Securities published research on Friday, March 13, revealing that Circle’s USDC has successfully overtaken Tether’s USDT in year-to-date adjusted transaction volume.
The development represents USDC’s first volume leadership position since 2019, breaking a prolonged period where USDT maintained dominance across this critical metric.
According to Mizuho’s calculations, USDC has processed approximately $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume through the current year. By comparison, USDT recorded $1.3 trillion during the identical timeframe.
These figures translate to USDC controlling roughly 64% of the combined adjusted volume between both major stablecoins, Mizuho’s report indicates.
Mizuho’s methodology for “adjusted volume” encompasses transfers involving centralized trading platforms, decentralized exchanges, and other identified entities — specifically filtering for users who haven’t exceeded particular activity benchmarks. Essentially, the metric captures transactions that represent genuine economic activity from real participants.
The bank’s analysts cited practical examples including corporate vendor payments, wagers placed on forecasting platforms such as Polymarket, and capital flows between centralized exchanges and decentralized finance applications.
What the Volume Shift Means
Mizuho’s research team emphasized that transaction volume provides superior predictive value compared to market capitalization for determining long-term stablecoin dominance.
“We believe that longer term, the stablecoin winner will be the one mostly used in everyday economic activity, rather than just the highest market cap,” Mizuho wrote.
Despite USDC’s volume advantage, USDT continues to dominate by total market capitalization. Tether’s flagship stablecoin maintains approximately $184 billion in outstanding supply, substantially ahead of USDC’s $79 billion.
Circle completed its public listing on the New York Stock Exchange in June 2025. The company’s shares showed minimal reaction to Mizuho’s latest research publication.
The investment bank simultaneously upgraded its Circle stock valuation from $100 to $120 per share within the same analytical report.
Circle Stock and the Regulatory Backdrop
Meanwhile in the nation’s capital, proposed legislation that could significantly influence stablecoin markets remains in legislative limbo.
The CLARITY Act successfully cleared the House of Representatives but faces continued delays in the Senate. Contentious discussions surrounding stablecoin yield mechanisms, ethical guidelines, and tokenized securities have impeded forward momentum.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune announced Thursday that the upper chamber would advance voting requirements legislation ahead of digital asset market structure bills. He projected that the market structure legislation would not advance to passage before April.
This regulatory uncertainty compounds the challenges facing the broader stablecoin sector as Circle’s publicly-traded shares continue exchanging hands on the NYSE.
Per Mizuho’s March 13, 2026 research publication, USDC now controls 64% of adjusted transaction volume when measured against the two leading stablecoins, marking its first leadership position in this category since 2019.
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