TLDR
- Jan van Eck, VanEck’s CEO, identifies a bottom formation in Bitcoin as the four-year halving cycle approaches its conclusion in 2026.
- Bitcoin currently hovers near $68,000, registering gains of 2.6% daily and 7.6% weekly.
- Spot Bitcoin ETF products in the United States recorded $458 million in single-day inflows, marking one of Q1’s most significant days.
- Middle East geopolitical developments involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran contribute market volatility, though institutional demand remains robust.
- BTC remains 22% lower year-to-date and trails its October record peak by over 40%.
As of March 3, 2026, Bitcoin maintains a position near the $68,000 mark, reflecting approximately 2.6% growth over the previous day.
Year-to-date performance shows a 22% decline, while the digital asset trades more than 40% beneath the all-time peak achieved in October 2025.
During a Monday interview with CNBC, Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, expressed his conviction that Bitcoin is currently establishing a market bottom.
Van Eck attributed the ongoing bearish conditions to the four-year halving cycle rather than any fundamental weaknesses in Bitcoin itself.
“Bitcoin experiences three consecutive years of appreciation, followed by a substantial decline in year four. We’re currently in that fourth year of 2026,” van Eck explained.
He emphasized that Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million coin supply limit and the quadrennial halving of miner block rewards create structural dynamics that influence price cycles.
The VanEck executive also noted that Bitcoin’s recent price action might be partially influenced by escalating geopolitical conflicts following American and Israeli military operations against Iran, along with Iranian retaliatory strikes on Israel.
He proposed that cryptocurrency payment infrastructure could function as an alternative mechanism for capital movement outside conventional banking systems in conflict-affected areas, specifically mentioning the UAE and Dubai.
ETF Capital Flows Remain Resilient Amid Conflict News
U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds captured approximately $458 million in investor capital on Tuesday, based on SoSoValue tracking data — representing one of the quarter’s most impressive single-session performances.
Across three back-to-back trading days last week, ETF vehicles accumulated $1.1 billion collectively. BlackRock’s IBIT product alone captured roughly 50% of those capital inflows.
Singapore-headquartered trading entity QCP Capital reported that weekend geopolitical developments triggered approximately $300 million in long position liquidations, which they characterized as “contained.”
Derivatives markets witnessed one-day implied volatility temporarily surge to 93% before retreating, which QCP interpreted as traders protecting against event risk rather than anticipating extended crisis conditions.
BTC Continues Struggling Below $70,000 Threshold
Bitcoin has predominantly oscillated within the $60,000 to $70,000 band throughout February. The asset reached $69,213 on Monday but couldn’t penetrate the $70,000 resistance level it last held in late January.
As of 01:25 ET Tuesday, the cryptocurrency was changing hands at $67,884, representing a 2.5% intraday advance.
Market observers note that risk sentiment remains tentative as Middle Eastern military operations persist, with American, Israeli, and Iranian leadership showing minimal signs of de-escalation.
According to CoinGecko information at publication time, Bitcoin is valued at $68,153.
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