TLDR
- Visa slid 4.5% Monday, closing at $306.52, after a research note raised concerns about AI threatening card network fees.
- Citrini Research published a hypothetical 2028 scenario where AI agents find cheaper payment routes, bypassing traditional networks.
- Mastercard fell 5.7% and American Express dropped 7.2% in the same session.
- Visa recovered slightly, up 0.2% in Tuesday premarket to $307.09.
- A $38 billion merchant swipe fee settlement remains pending court approval.
Visa closed Monday at $306.52 — down 4.5% — after a research note put the company’s fee model in the spotlight.
The stock opened at $319.04, slid to a session low of $304.71, and finished near the day’s bottom.
The trigger was a Substack post from Citrini Research, published Sunday. The firm called it “a scenario, not a prediction” — a hypothetical market digest set on June 30, 2028.
In that fictional picture, U.S. unemployment had topped 10% and the S&P 500 had fallen 38% from its peak, with AI-driven job displacement as the main cause.
Visa was called out by name. Citrini argued that AI agents working on behalf of consumers could hunt down cheaper payment routes, putting Visa’s 2%-3% network and processing fees directly at risk. Stablecoins were flagged as one potential alternative to card-based payments.
To be clear on the mechanics: Visa doesn’t pocket interchange fees — those flow to card-issuing banks. Its revenue comes from network and processing fees, which means it needs transaction volumes and cross-border flows to stay strong.
The Selloff Spread Across Payment Stocks
Visa wasn’t alone. Mastercard dropped 5.7% and American Express fell 7.2% in the same session. Both Visa and American Express ranked among the heaviest drags on the Dow, according to MarketWatch.
The broader read from traders was simple. Any business that charges a small fee on every transaction — the toll booth model — suddenly looked exposed.
Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, put it plainly: “You’ve seen the market react to headlines, it’s ‘sell first, assess later.'”
A Legal Overhang Adds to the Pressure
Separately, Visa is carrying unresolved legal weight. Last November, Visa and Mastercard put forward a revised $38 billion settlement with merchants over swipe fees. A judge has not yet approved it.
Merchant groups remain unhappy with the terms. Stephanie Martz, general counsel for the National Retail Federation, said: “You can’t just suddenly tell more than 80% of your card customers you’re not going to take their cards.”
The combination of AI disruption fears and an unresolved court process gave investors two reasons to pull back at once.
Where Visa Stands Now
Visa edged up 0.2% in Tuesday premarket, touching $307.09 — a minor recovery from Monday’s drop.
Two scheduled appearances are coming up. Chief Product and Strategy Officer Jack Forestell speaks at Morgan Stanley’s Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on March 3. Chris Newkirk, President of Commercial & Money Movement Solutions, is set for the Wolfe Research FinTech Forum on March 11.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
