TLDR
- Evercore ISI lifted Ryanair to “outperform” status and increased its price objective from $75 to $80
- Among all airlines tracked by Evercore, Ryanair stands alone in receiving higher earnings projections for 2026 and 2027
- Jet fuel crack spreads have reached 44% of barrel prices—over twice the typical 20-25% historical range
- Major U.S. carriers including United, Delta, and American Airlines faced significant EPS downgrades from Evercore
- Discounted cash flow modeling values Ryanair at €30.34 per share compared to its recent €26.61 close, indicating an 12.3% undervaluation
Evercore ISI elevated its stance on Ryanair Holdings this Thursday, shifting the rating to “outperform” from “In Line” while boosting the price objective to $80 from the previous $75.
The investment firm highlighted Ryanair’s solid €1 billion net cash balance and a 15% decline from January peaks as primary catalysts behind the rating improvement.
This upgrade occurred while Evercore simultaneously lowered forecasts for nearly all other airlines under its research umbrella. Jet fuel crack spreads have skyrocketed to 44% of the total Gulf Coast barrel valuation—substantially exceeding the 20-25% long-term norm.
Analyst Duane Pfennigwerth characterized this as a 2.8-sigma deviation, drawing parallels to market conditions witnessed in 2008 and the initial phase of the Ukraine conflict.
Spot jet fuel prices were tracking approximately 53% higher than the first-quarter average as of March 11. Evercore projects a two-week delay in fuel cost impact, placing Q1 2026 Gulf Coast jet fuel at $2.40 per gallon.
Ryanair’s earnings forecast for 2026 climbed to $4.77 from $4.65, while the 2027 projection increased to $5.75 from $5.65. No other airline in the firm’s coverage received positive revisions.
Rivals Take the Hit
The divergence with competing carriers was dramatic. United Airlines experienced a 2026 EPS forecast reduction to $8.60 from $13. Delta’s estimate dropped to $5.70 from $7, while American Airlines plummeted to -$0.36 from $2.
Ryanair’s net debt-to-EBITDAR ratio for 2026 registers at -0.4x, representing the most robust position within Evercore’s airline coverage universe. JetBlue shows 13.7x and American registers 7.2x.
Evercore’s projections remain conservative compared to Street consensus for most airlines. Its United forecast of $8.60 contrasts with the broader consensus of $12.91. The Delta projection of $5.70 falls short of the $6.99 consensus. For Ryanair, the firm’s $5.52 full-year 2026 forecast aligns closely with the $5.55 Street consensus.
Nevertheless, travel demand fundamentals across the industry appear solid. Evercore’s Airlines Survey climbed 6.2 points to reach 70.0 in early March, with international metrics surging from 62.5 to 75.
Passenger traffic data for the week concluding March 10 showed a 2% year-over-year increase and stood 5% above 2019 benchmarks.
What the Valuation Says
Discounted cash flow modeling by Simply Wall St estimates Ryanair’s fair value at €30.34 per share. With a recent closing price of €26.61, this suggests the stock trades at a 12.3% discount to intrinsic value.
Ryanair currently commands a P/E multiple of 12.47x. This valuation exceeds the Airlines industry median of 8.66x while remaining below the peer group average of 17.24x.
Shares have declined 10.4% year-to-date and retreated 5.6% during the past month. Looking at longer timeframes, the stock maintains a 31.1% gain over one year and has surged 96.1% across three years.
Ryanair’s full-year 2026 EPS projection of $5.52 from Evercore closely matches the $5.55 Street consensus—representing an unusual consensus point within a coverage universe otherwise experiencing widespread downward adjustments.
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