TLDR
- Polymarket bettors have raised Sam Bankman-Fried’s pardon odds to 12% after Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao was pardoned.
- Over $6.5 million in bets were placed on Bankman-Fried’s potential pardon, with $302,090 specifically on him.
- The surge in pardon odds follows the release of Binance CEO Zhao, sparking debates on whether Bankman-Fried deserves similar treatment.
- Experts argue that Bankman-Fried’s crimes are more severe than Zhao’s due to the scale of his fraud and money laundering.
- Polymarket also saw a rise in odds for Bankman-Fried’s potential release in 2025, although they later fell back to 15%.
Polymarket bettors have increased their odds on former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried being pardoned to 12%. This comes after Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao received a pardon this week. The new odds for Bankman-Fried’s potential pardon grew from 5.6% to 12% within 12 hours.
Polymarket Bets on Sam Bankman-Fried’s Pardon Jump to 12%
Polymarket saw a surge in bets on Sam Bankman-Fried being pardoned, with more than $6.5 million placed. Of this amount, $302,090 was wagered specifically on Bankman-Fried. As a result, his odds of receiving a pardon this year have more than doubled.
The spike in odds comes following the recent pardon granted to former, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao. Many now wonder if Bankman-Fried could see similar treatment. However, some critics argue that Bankman-Fried’s crimes are far more severe than those of Zhao.
Pardon Debate Intensifies After CZ’s Release
The debate about Sam Bankman-Fried’s potential pardon intensified after the release of Zhao’s pardon. Critics argue that Bankman-Fried’s case is different due to the scale of his crimes. While Zhao violated US Anti-Money Laundering laws, Bankman-Fried was convicted of fraud and money laundering.
Legal experts such as crypto lawyer Jake Chervinsky argue that Bankman-Fried has little chance of a pardon. Chervinsky explained that Bankman-Fried’s association with the Democratic Party further complicates his case. “His name is half punch line, half curse word in DC,” he added.
Sasha Hodder, a crypto lawyer, noted that CZ’s crime was “compliance-related” and not morally criminal. She stressed that Bankman-Fried’s case involves the theft of customer funds on a massive scale.
In addition to the pardon market, Polymarket also offers a market on Bankman-Fried’s potential release in 2025. Initially, his odds of being released surged from 4.3% to 19.1%. However, those odds later fell back to 15.5%.
Despite this fluctuation, it seems unlikely that any major developments will occur before the end of the year. A pardon remains his most plausible route to release before January. Polymarket’s shift in betting reflects a growing belief that Bankman-Fried’s future could hinge on political decisions.
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