Key Takeaways
- Prominent analyst Willy Woo forecasts a significant Bitcoin correction following a temporary bounce to approximately $75K
- The digital asset may find support near $45K, though a worst-case scenario could push prices to $30K under severe macro conditions
- Market liquidity across spot and derivatives markets is weakening simultaneously — a condition Woo notes has never supported BTC rallies
- Relief from bearish pressure anticipated in late 2026, with bullish momentum potentially resuming in early-to-mid 2027
- Additional market observers share pessimistic views, including Peter Brandt’s projection of a decline to $42K
Renowned on-chain analyst Willy Woo has issued a cautionary forecast suggesting Bitcoin faces a substantial correction, potentially finding its floor near the $45,000 mark.
According to Woo’s analysis, BTC might experience a short-lived recovery toward $75,000, maintaining a consolidation pattern for approximately 30 days before resuming its downward trajectory.
His rationale centers on simultaneous deterioration across both spot and derivatives market liquidity. “I’ve never seen BTC rally when both sources of liquidity are bearish,” Woo emphasized in his assessment.
Bitcoin currently changes hands near $67,800, reflecting a modest decline of approximately 1% in the past 24 hours.
Data from Glassnode indicates that profit realization activity continues to suppress upward momentum around the $70,000 threshold. The current shallow liquidity landscape means even modest selling pressure can trigger noticeable price declines.
Projected Downside Levels
Woo identifies $45,000 as his primary expectation for where the bear cycle might conclude. He anticipates substantial buying interest emerging at this price point.
Should worldwide macroeconomic circumstances deteriorate beyond current projections, he points to $30,000 as the subsequent critical support zone. Additionally, he’s marked $16,000 as the ultimate threshold that must hold to preserve Bitcoin’s extended uptrend structure.
Woo highlighted that Bitcoin’s entire existence has occurred during a sustained global macro expansion spanning 2009 through 2026. A reversal of these favorable conditions would represent unprecedented territory for the cryptocurrency.
Projected Recovery Schedule
Woo anticipates bearish pressure beginning to diminish during the fourth quarter of 2026. His outlook suggests bullish conditions could reemerge during the first or second quarter of 2027, consistent with Bitcoin’s characteristic four-year market cycle.
Seasoned trader Peter Brandt has similarly forecast a Bitcoin correction, setting his sights on $42,000. This target corresponds with the 200-week moving average, a closely monitored long-term support metric.
Certain market observers are monitoring the realized price at $54,000 as a potential intermediate downside objective.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan presents a contrasting perspective. He suggests selling pressure has diminished and believes the market may be establishing a base, leaving room for fresh record highs.
BTC presently trades around $67,800, with Glassnode analytics confirming persistent resistance to upward movement in the $70,000 region.
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