Key Takeaways
- XRP experienced a 10.5% decline across three consecutive days while maintaining support from a bull flag formation around the $1.40–$1.45 range
- South Korean investors are removing XRP from Upbit at unprecedented levels, mirroring behavior observed during previous accumulation cycles
- Large holder flow metrics have flipped positive for the first time since the beginning of 2024, indicating potential accumulation by major investors
- The Fed maintained its benchmark rate between 3.5%–3.75% on March 18, creating headwinds for speculative assets across markets
- XRP spot ETFs in the United States reported no net capital inflows on Wednesday, though total cumulative inflows remain at $1.21 billion
XRP currently changes hands between $1.42–$1.45 following a steep correction exceeding 10% over the past three trading sessions. While the downturn reflects broader cryptocurrency market turbulence, multiple blockchain metrics suggest conditions may be aligning for a potential bounce.
The recent sell-off occurred after XRP successfully cleared resistance from a bull flag formation last week. This chart pattern develops when an asset enters a downward-sloping consolidation channel following a significant upward move. Once price breaks above the upper boundary, it frequently retests the breakout zone before continuing higher — a scenario that appears to be playing out currently.
Critical support emerges in the mid-$1.40 region, which aligns with the 20-day exponential moving average. Should XRP maintain this floor, the bull flag’s projected upside target points to $1.70–$1.72, representing approximately 20% appreciation from present levels.
South Korean Investors Drain Exchange Reserves
Blockchain intelligence from CryptoQuant reveals a dramatic acceleration in XRP withdrawals from South Korea’s dominant Upbit trading platform beginning in December 2025. Investors across virtually every wallet size category have been extracting XRP from the exchange at historic volumes. Declining exchange balances generally indicate reduced selling pressure.
CryptoQuant analyst CW identified comparable withdrawal patterns between 2021 and early 2023, which coincided with a major accumulation cycle. That phase preceded a substantial rally from under $1 to beyond $3 — representing approximately 500% gains.
As of Thursday, XRP denominated in South Korean Won ranked as the fourth-largest trading pair by 24-hour volume according to CoinMarketCap data.
Large Holder Behavior Signals Trend Change
XRP’s 90-day rolling average for whale-sized transactions has crossed into positive territory for the first time following an extended negative period throughout 2024 and into early 2025. During that bearish phase, major wallets were net sellers. The recent reversal implies that heavy distribution from large holders may be tapering off.
A comparable shift occurred between April and September 2025, when XRP advanced from approximately $2.20 to $3.55.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate at 3.5%–3.75% during its March 18 meeting, pointing to persistent inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty. Financial markets interpreted this stance as restrictive. The CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index registered 29 at press time, reflecting heightened anxiety among traders.
Institutional engagement remains muted. US-listed XRP spot ETFs recorded zero net capital flows on Wednesday. Total assets under management currently stand around $1.02 billion, compared to aggregate inflows of $1.21 billion.
CoinGlass liquidation heat maps indicate substantial liquidity concentration near $1.35. A breakdown beneath current support could activate cascading forced liquidations in that vicinity.
On shorter timeframes, the four-hour chart displays a bearish MACD crossover near the $1.54 resistance threshold. Bulls require a decisive recapture of $1.50 to restore positive momentum, with $1.55 representing the subsequent obstacle before any advance toward $1.60.
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