TLDR

• Bitcoin hit a record high above $126,000 this week with technical analysis showing continued upward potential
• Bitwise forecasts Bitcoin ETF inflows will break records in Q4 2025 and surpass the $36 billion collected in 2024
• Morgan Stanley authorized 16,000 advisers to recommend Bitcoin ETF allocations up to 4% for suitable clients
• Bitcoin trades between $108,000 and $125,000 support and resistance levels with low volatility indicators
• CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin is halfway through its four-year cycle and far from overbought territory

Bitcoin reached a fresh all-time high above $126,000 this week. Market analysts say the cryptocurrency has room to climb higher based on technical indicators and institutional adoption trends.

CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain reports Bitcoin is approximately halfway through its four-year price cycle. The cryptocurrency is trading in a stable range far from overbought conditions that typically signal market peaks.

Bitcoin’s 30-day moving average stands just below $116,000. This indicates steady upward momentum without extreme price swings. The 30-day standard deviation measures $4,540, showing compressed volatility levels.

Low volatility often precedes strong price movements when combined with fresh liquidity inflows. Bitcoin’s growth ratio has trended upward since May 2024 according to on-chain data.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Forecast

Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan projects Bitcoin ETF inflows will set a new record in the fourth quarter. He expects the funds to attract more capital in 2025 than their debut year when they collected $36 billion.

Bitcoin ETFs have gathered $22.5 billion through the first nine months of 2025. Current trends suggest they will finish the year with roughly $30 billion in total inflows.

Hougan attributes his bullish forecast to Bitcoin’s price performance and expanding access. Higher Bitcoin prices typically increase ETF demand as media coverage and investor interest intensify.

Historical data shows quarters with double-digit Bitcoin gains also see double-digit billions flowing into ETFs. The first four trading days of Q4 brought $3.5 billion in net inflows.

Wall Street Access Expands

Major wealth management firms are opening their platforms to Bitcoin ETFs. Morgan Stanley issued guidance to 16,000 financial advisers about cryptocurrency allocations earlier this month.

The firm’s report states advisers can allocate to cryptocurrency within diversified portfolios. Morgan Stanley recommends up to 4% exposure for risk-tolerant clients.

Hougan notes advisers want year-end reports showing positions in top-performing assets. Gold and Bitcoin have delivered strong returns in 2025, making them attractive for portfolio reviews.

The debasement trade is driving institutional interest as the US dollar weakens. Assets that perform well during currency devaluation are gaining attention from professional investors.

Technical Outlook and Market Structure

Bitcoin currently trades between $108,000 support and $125,000 resistance. The $108,000 level represents a high-demand zone that absorbed previous selling pressure.

A breakout above $125,000 would confirm bullish continuation and potentially trigger the next leg higher. Bitcoin historically reaches cycle peaks within 600 days following halving events.

The most recent halving cut mining rewards by 50%. If historical patterns repeat, Bitcoin is entering the critical window that previously produced major bull market tops.

The US government shutdown has delayed the Crypto Market Structure Bill. Legislative voting may not resume until late 2025 or early 2026. However, institutional adoption continues progressing through existing ETF structures.

Bitcoin ETFs need approximately $10 billion more in inflows over the remaining 64 trading days to reach Hougan’s predicted record. Morgan Stanley’s platform approval gives advisers access to Bitcoin exposure for suitable client portfolios.