TLDR
- Bitcoin whale addresses reached record 19,130 in September 2025
- September historically averages 4.68% losses for BTC since 2010
- Technical indicators suggest potential decline to $100,000 support level
- August saw 6.5% drop with $751 million ETF outflows
- Current price near $109,000 shows daily gains of 0.29%
Bitcoin price hovers near $109,000 in early September 2025, facing its historically weakest month while large holders accumulate at record levels.
The world’s leading cryptocurrency maintains relative stability despite seasonal headwinds that have consistently challenged Bitcoin performance throughout its history.
September’s Historical Performance Pattern
Data spanning 2010 to 2025 reveals September as Bitcoin’s most challenging month. Average losses during this period reached 4.68% according to Bitwise Asset Management analysis.
This weakness stems from recurring profit-taking activities and reduced market liquidity. Historical records show eight of twelve September months since 2013 closed with negative returns.
August 2025 delivered a 6.5% decline, ending a four-month winning streak. US-listed spot exchange-traded funds experienced $751 million in outflows during this correction according to SoSoValue data.
Technical Analysis Shows Bearish Signals
Bitcoin breached multiple key support levels including the Ichimoku cloud and 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages. The cryptocurrency also pierced horizontal support zones at $111,965 and $109,364.
These technical breakdowns confirm growing market weakness. The Guppy Multiple Moving Average shows short-term bands crossing below longer-term bands, indicating bearish momentum.
Weekly MACD histogram readings dropped below zero, suggesting a transition from bullish to bearish trend conditions. Combined signals point toward potential sustained selling pressure.
Support levels include $105,240 representing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and $101,366 marking the 200-day simple moving average. Resistance sits at $110,756 and $113,510.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Despite seasonal concerns, whale addresses holding at least 100 BTC reached an all-time high of 19,130 in 2025. This surpassed the previous 2017 peak of 18,544.
Growth remained steady from 1,375 addresses in 2010 to 17,761 in 2024. The 2025 record reflects consistent accumulation among institutional investors and large holders.
Market participants monitor whale buying patterns as large inflows often precede major price movements. Heavy accumulation typically signals confidence in long-term prospects.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Technical analysis suggests potential downside toward $100,000 if current bearish momentum continues. The 200-day simple moving average at $101,366 represents the first major support target.
Bulls need to reclaim $113,510 to negate the bearish outlook and potentially drive prices higher. The balance between seasonal weakness and whale accumulation creates competing forces for September trading.
Current stability near $109,000 reflects market equilibrium between selling pressure and institutional buying. Whale activity reaching historic levels provides underlying strength despite technical concerns.
The cryptocurrency faces a critical test as September’s historical weakness challenges unprecedented large holder accumulation patterns.
