TLDR
- Brent crude declined more than 1% to $94.44 following reports Iran will dispatch negotiators to Pakistan despite public rejection of talks
- Washington’s ceasefire arrangement with Tehran concludes Wednesday, with Trump stating extension prospects are minimal
- The Strait of Hormuz blockade persists, eliminating approximately 20% of worldwide crude exports
- Gulf producers Saudi Arabia and UAE redirect shipments via alternate routes, boosting combined terminal capacity to 6.5 million barrels daily
- Banking analysts at Citigroup project crude could surge to $110 per barrel if the maritime disruption extends another 30 days
Global crude markets retreated Tuesday following indications that Tehran will participate in US-sponsored diplomatic discussions in Islamabad, Pakistan, despite Iranian leadership’s public resistance to renewed negotiations.
Brent crude futures declined 1.1% to reach $94.44 per barrel, reversing a portion of Monday’s substantial 5.6% rally. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate decreased 0.9% to $86.68 during Asian trading sessions.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker, declared the nation would refuse to negotiate while facing intimidation from the United States. However, according to The Wall Street Journal, Iranian officials privately communicated to regional intermediaries their intention to dispatch representatives to Pakistan within days.
⚡️JUST IN: IRAN WILLING TO NEGOTIATE A DEAL
Iran will send negotiators to Pakistan on Tuesday for second-round US talks led by Vice President JD Vance, per WSJ. pic.twitter.com/9QvNkAf3cO
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) April 20, 2026
The composition and leadership of Iran’s negotiating team has not been disclosed.
US Vice President JD Vance is en route to reconvene diplomatic discussions, anticipated to commence late Tuesday or early Wednesday. President Trump indicated Sunday that prolonging the temporary ceasefire beyond Wednesday evening Eastern time appears improbable.
Trump additionally verified that American naval forces will maintain their maritime enforcement operations against Iran pending a comprehensive settlement. US military personnel commandeered an Iranian ship during the weekend, triggering Tehran’s decision to reinstate restrictions on Strait of Hormuz passage.
Hormuz Shipping Remains Stalled
Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been virtually paralyzed since hostilities erupted in late February. Iran temporarily permitted transit resumption over the weekend before reimposing the closure.
Early Tuesday witnessed merely three vessels attempting passage through the strategic waterway. Under normal circumstances, the strait facilitates approximately one-fifth of global crude oil supplies.
Banking experts from ANZ observed that persistent instability continues to undermine confidence in any potential diplomatic resolution, as Tehran demonstrates hesitation toward rejoining discussions.
Regional energy giants Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have initiated contingency shipping strategies to circumvent Hormuz. These nations are leveraging the Yanbu facility along the Red Sea coast and Fujairah’s terminal facing the Gulf of Oman. Aggregate throughput at these alternative export points has climbed to 6.5 million barrels daily, representing an increase from the pre-conflict baseline of 5.0 million barrels.
What Analysts Are Saying
Financial institution Citigroup projects benchmark crude prices could escalate to $110 per barrel should the Hormuz transportation crisis persist for an additional 30-day period.
Fatih Birol, who leads the International Energy Agency, cautioned that worldwide energy sectors may experience sustained turbulence extending up to 24 months resulting from the ongoing hostilities.
According to Dilin Wu, research strategist at Pepperstone, trading desks will demonstrate extreme responsiveness to breaking developments throughout the upcoming 24-hour window.
Chinese President Xi Jinping advocated for immediate cessation of military operations and reinstatement of standard Hormuz navigation during Monday discussions with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
As of Tuesday morning hours, no follow-up session between American and Iranian negotiators has received official confirmation, with the ceasefire expiration scheduled for Wednesday evening.
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