Key Takeaways
- Over the last 30 days, DAL stock has gained approximately 5%, significantly outperforming Southwest, United, and American Airlines, which each fell over 10%
- First-quarter earnings release scheduled for Wednesday, April 8, prior to market open
- Jet fuel prices have doubled in one month, reaching $195 per barrel amid Iran tensions — Delta maintains a no-hedging policy on fuel
- Wall Street projects Q1 revenue at $14.8B (up 5.38% year-over-year) with earnings per share of $0.62 versus $0.46 last year
- From a technical perspective, DAL trades above key 50- and 100-day exponential moving averages, eyeing the $76 year-to-date peak as the next upside objective
As Delta Air Lines prepares to unveil its first-quarter financial results on April 8, the carrier finds itself in a relatively stronger position compared to industry competitors. Over the past month, shares have appreciated approximately 5%, contrasting sharply with Southwest, United, and American Airlines, which have each tumbled more than 10% during the same timeframe.
This performance divergence stems from several strategic factors. Delta has aggressively pursued the premium travel segment, capturing higher-spending passengers who demonstrate resilience during economic uncertainty. During the fourth quarter, premium cabin revenues climbed 9% to approximately $5.7 billion, even as economy class revenues declined 7% to $5.62 billion.
The carrier also demonstrated impressive recovery following a challenging late February period, when shares dipped beneath the 50-day moving average as treasury yields and crude oil prices escalated in response to escalating Iran tensions. A decisive rebound on March 9 enabled DAL to reclaim territory above that critical technical threshold.
The focus now shifts to Wednesday’s announcement.
Wall Street consensus anticipates first-quarter revenues of $14.8 billion, representing a 5.38% year-over-year expansion, with earnings per share projected at $0.62 compared to $0.46 in the prior-year period. However, these expectations face mounting headwinds.
Jet Fuel Expenses Present Major Risk Factor
Unlike many competitors, Delta maintains a policy against hedging jet fuel exposure. This approach is now proving costly. According to IATA data, average jet fuel prices have escalated to $195 per barrel — representing a staggering 103% increase from the previous month — driven primarily by supply constraints linked to the Iran situation.
This development directly pressures profit margins. Management will likely provide updated guidance on how geopolitical tensions are influencing the company’s 2025 trajectory during the earnings call. While Delta successfully weathered previous oil price spikes — including the surge following Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion — the current acceleration presents considerable challenges.
In its previous guidance, the airline projected first-quarter adjusted earnings per share between $0.50 and $0.90, with a midpoint of $0.70 slightly trailing the analyst consensus of $0.72 at that time.
For fiscal 2025, Delta has issued full-year earnings guidance of $6.50 to $7.50 per share. Revenue projections call for $67.2 billion in 2025, advancing to $70 billion in 2026.
Technical Analysis Suggests Bullish Momentum
From a charting perspective, DAL has demonstrated solid technical strength. The equity rebounded from a March bottom of $55.20 and currently trades near $66.70. Shares maintain positions above both the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, as well as an upward-sloping trendline established since last June.
The price action has created a harami candlestick formation — characterized by a smaller bullish candle contained within the prior session’s larger bearish candle — which technical analysts frequently interpret as a potential trend reversal indicator.
The 2025 high of $76 represents approximately 14% upside from current price levels and serves as the next meaningful resistance level on the chart.
In the fourth quarter, Delta generated $16 billion in revenues with an operating profit of $1.5 billion. For the complete 2024 fiscal year, the airline delivered revenues of $63.4 billion, operating profit of $5.8 billion, and operating cash flow totaling $14.1 billion.
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