TLDR
- Gold futures reached $4,000 per ounce for the first time on Tuesday, marking a 50% gain since January
- Bitcoin has gained 33.5% in the same period but analysts expect it to catch up to gold’s performance
- Political instability in the US, France, and Japan is driving demand for safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin
- Historical data shows Bitcoin correlates with gold prices with an eight-week delay
- Goldman Sachs raised its gold forecast to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026
Gold futures crossed the $4,000 per ounce threshold for the first time on Tuesday. Spot prices reached an all-time high of $3,976, according to market data.
The precious metal has climbed more than 50% since the start of January. Bitcoin has gained 33.5% during the same timeframe but analysts believe the digital asset will soon catch up.
Political Uncertainty Drives Safe-Haven Demand
The US government shutdown entered its second week, leaving investors without critical economic data. The Federal Reserve faces challenges assessing economic conditions without this information.
France is experiencing political turmoil after Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu resigned. He failed to reach consensus on budget spending with political parties.
The country holds the largest fiscal deficit in the euro area. Japan’s political landscape is also shifting as Sanae Takaichi prepares to become prime minister.
These events are pushing investors toward safe-haven assets. Central banks continue buying gold, with China’s central bank purchasing for 11 consecutive months through September.
Bitcoin Correlation Points to Coming Rally
Henrik Andersson from Apollo Capital told reporters that Bitcoin will likely outperform gold. The gold high demonstrates investor appetite for scarce assets.
Justin d’Anethan of Arctic Digital said gold reaching $4,000 confirms the same dynamics supporting Bitcoin. Both assets respond to US deficit concerns and dollar weakness.
Bitcoin trades around the clock and has a fixed supply cap. These factors could lead to larger price movements compared to gold.
Analyst Ted Pillows identified a strong correlation between Bitcoin and gold with an eight-week lag. With gold hitting new records, Bitcoin should follow in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin reached an all-time high above $126,000 late Monday. The digital asset shows signs of catching up to gold’s momentum.
Major Institutions Raise Price Targets
Goldman Sachs increased its gold price forecast to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026. The bank previously predicted $4,300 per ounce.
Exchange-traded fund inflows and central bank purchases support the bullish outlook. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts also help gold prices since the metal doesn’t generate income.
Traders expect a quarter-point rate cut this month. Lower rates typically benefit gold and Bitcoin as alternative stores of value.
David Chao from Invesco Asset Management recommends holding around 5% of portfolios in gold. He views it as protection against dollar weakness and future economic shocks.
David Marcus, CEO of Litespark and former PayPal head, said Bitcoin valued like gold would be worth $1.3 million. He believes the digital asset offers better value storage than gold.
Gold traded at $3,965.90 per ounce as of Tuesday afternoon Singapore time. The 2025 gain represents gold’s best annual performance since 1979.
President Donald Trump’s trade policies and geopolitical moves have accelerated gold’s rise this year. His actions triggered capital flight from the dollar into safe-haven assets.
Silver held steady above $48 per ounce on Tuesday. Palladium rose 1% while platinum gained 0.5%.
