Quick Overview
- Nvidia’s Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings arrive on May 20, with analysts anticipating $1.76 EPS and $78.75 billion in total revenue.
- The data center division is forecast to deliver $72.85 billion, representing approximately double the $39.11 billion generated in the prior-year quarter.
- Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s CEO, disclosed that the company’s market position in China has collapsed to zero amid Beijing’s domestic semiconductor initiatives.
- Production shipments of the Vera Rubin next-generation platform remain scheduled for H2 2025, with customer samples already distributed.
- Forward-looking Q2 guidance carries significant weight—consensus sits near $87 billion, and any shortfall could pressure shares.
Nvidia is poised to release one of the most anticipated quarterly reports of 2025. According to Bloomberg consensus forecasts, the chipmaker is expected to announce Q1 revenue of $78.75 billion alongside earnings per share of $1.76. These figures represent substantial growth from the year-ago period, which saw $44.06 billion in sales and $0.96 in EPS.
Shares finished trading at $220.61 on May 19, experiencing a modest decline during the session while maintaining a year-to-date gain of approximately 19%. The stock achieved a record closing high of $235.74 on May 14.
The data center business is projected to dominate once again, with Wall Street modeling $72.85 billion from this division. Within that total, compute operations are expected to contribute $60.53 billion, while networking should add $12.45 billion. The gaming segment is anticipated to reach $3.64 billion, marking a roughly 3% decrease.
Critical Factors Beyond Topline Results
The Q2 revenue forecast could prove more consequential than the Q1 actual performance. Analysts have converged around an $87 billion estimate for the upcoming quarter. Should management issue guidance beneath this threshold, even exceptional Q1 results may fail to sustain the current share price.
Investors should also note a reporting methodology change at Nvidia beginning this quarter. The company now incorporates stock-based compensation into non-GAAP metrics, requiring adjustments when comparing historical periods.
The Vera Rubin platform represents another key area of interest. This next-generation rack-scale architecture follows Blackwell and promises substantial improvements in efficiency and performance per watt. CFO Colette Kress indicated during the previous earnings discussion that initial samples reached customers, with volume production targeted for the latter half of 2025.
The China Challenge: Market Share Evaporates
Nvidia’s China situation remains a significant overhang. CEO Jensen Huang recently acknowledged that the company’s market share in China has plummeted from approximately 90% to essentially nothing. Management’s Q1 forecast explicitly removed data center revenue expectations from Chinese operations.
Some regulatory developments have emerged. The Trump administration modified export controls in mid-January, permitting case-by-case licensing for Nvidia’s H200 processor with an accompanying 25% tariff. Huang suggested to Bloomberg this week that gradual market reopening remains possible.
Whether management incorporates any China recovery assumptions into Q2 guidance or maintains a conservative stance represents a major question mark surrounding the earnings call.
Competitive pressures continue intensifying. Cerebras completed its public offering last Thursday, marketing an alternative AI processor architecture the company claims delivers superior throughput. AMD is developing a competing rack-scale solution targeted for later this year. Amazon’s semiconductor division now operates at an annual run rate exceeding $20 billion, while Google introduced upgraded TPU 8i and TPU 8t chips at this week’s Google I/O conference.
During the March GTC conference, Huang outlined expectations for $1 trillion in combined revenue from Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin architectures. Aggregate capital expenditure from Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta is projected to reach approximately $725 billion in 2026, up from roughly $410 billion in the previous year.
Nvidia releases its quarterly results after market close on Wednesday, May 20.
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