Key Takeaways
- Wall Street analysts forecast prediction market volumes climbing to approximately $1 trillion by decade’s end, a significant leap from 2025’s $51 billion
- Leading platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have collectively processed $60 billion in transactions through 2026 year-to-date
- While sports betting currently accounts for 62% of market activity, cryptocurrency and macroeconomic contracts are projected to dominate future growth
- Sector revenues are anticipated to surge from $400 million in 2025 to $10.8 billion by 2030
- Financial services giants Robinhood and Coinbase identified as primary beneficiaries, with analysts setting price targets at $130 and $330 respectively
Investment research firm Bernstein has released bullish projections suggesting prediction market transaction volumes could surge to approximately $1 trillion by the end of this decade. This represents a staggering expansion from last year’s $51 billion in total volume.
According to the analysis, trading volumes are expected to reach approximately $240 billion during 2026 alone. This trajectory indicates a compound annual growth rate approaching 80% over the remaining years of the decade.
Major platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have collectively processed $60 billion in transactions during 2026 thus far. This momentum demonstrates the sector is exceeding previous market expectations.
The research team headed by Gautam Chhugani at Bernstein identifies two critical catalysts driving this expansion. First, improved regulatory clarity from federal authorities is creating a more stable operating environment. Second, blockchain-based infrastructure enables worldwide access and rapid deployment of contracts tied to emerging events.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has claimed exclusive regulatory authority over prediction markets and is actively developing comprehensive guidelines as the sector expands.
Sports-related contracts presently constitute approximately 62% of total prediction market activity. The competitive fee structures compared to conventional sports betting platforms have fueled this market segment’s growth.
Beyond Sports Betting
Bernstein anticipates sports contracts will decline to roughly 31% of total volume by 2030. Cryptocurrency-related contracts, alongside macroeconomic, political, and broader economic events, are projected to become the predominant categories.
The research team forecasts institutional adoption will accelerate around economic forecasting, business outcomes, and political event contracts. Corporations and insurance providers may increasingly utilize these platforms for hedging against event-specific uncertainties.
From a revenue perspective, the prediction market ecosystem generated approximately $400 million during 2025. Bernstein’s models project revenue expanding to $2.5 billion in 2026, ultimately reaching $10.8 billion by the decade’s conclusion.
Polymarket has transitioned away from its previous zero-commission structure. The platform now operates with an annualized revenue trajectory of $420 million.
Major Players: Robinhood and Coinbase
Robinhood has generated a $350 million annualized revenue stream from prediction markets within just twelve months of launching its Kalshi-integrated platform. The brokerage is simultaneously developing proprietary exchange capabilities.
Coinbase has entered the prediction market arena through its Kalshi partnership, providing customers with access to over 1,000 different contract types across the United States.
Bernstein maintains outperform ratings on both equities. The investment firm established a $130 price objective for Robinhood shares, representing approximately 81% potential appreciation from Monday’s closing price. The $330 target on Coinbase stock suggests roughly 89% upside potential.
Research analysts highlighted that Robinhood’s valuation has declined approximately 50% since late 2025. They contend that disappointing first-quarter performance is already reflected in current pricing, with trading activity expected to rebound during the second quarter.
The firm’s models project Robinhood’s prediction market revenues expanding from roughly $150 million in 2025 to $586 million throughout 2026. Additional volume catalysts include the 2026 FIFA World Cup hosted in the United States and upcoming midterm electoral contests.
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